How to Trade Up to P250 | Splash
P250 | Splash drops from eSports 2013 CaseeSports 2013 Case, eSports 2013 Case, eSports 2013 Case, eSports 2013 Case, eSports 2013 Case, eSports 2013 Case, eSports 2013 Case, eSports 2013 Case, eSports 2013 Case, eSports 2013 Case, eSports 2013 Case, eSports 2013 Case, eSports 2013 Case, eSports 2013 Case, eSports 2013 Case, so any contract that can produce it needs 10 Mil-Spec skins from those same cases. Here is what the contract costs, what else it can land on, and the input float you need for each exterior.
- Odds per contract
- 33.33% 1 in 3
- Contract cost from
- $2720.00 10× cheapest input
- Expected value
- $1753.67 mean of the outcome pool
- Margin
- -35.5% $-966.33 per contract
Buying is cheaper than rolling. A Minimal Wear P250 | Splash costs $1780.00 outright, against $2720.00 for a contract with a 33.33% chance of producing one. Trade up for the process, not the value.
The contract
Ten inputs, all Mil-Spec, all from eSports 2013 CaseeSports 2013 Case or eSports 2013 Case or eSports 2013 Case or eSports 2013 Case or eSports 2013 Case or eSports 2013 Case or eSports 2013 Case or eSports 2013 Case or eSports 2013 Case or eSports 2013 Case or eSports 2013 Case or eSports 2013 Case or eSports 2013 Case or eSports 2013 Case or eSports 2013 Case. Concentrating every input in one case is what keeps your odds at 33.33% — mixing cases splits the probability across both pools and lowers your chance at P250 | Splash specifically.
What else this contract can land on
A contract from eSports 2013 CaseeSports 2013 Case / eSports 2013 Case / eSports 2013 Case / eSports 2013 Case / eSports 2013 Case / eSports 2013 Case / eSports 2013 Case / eSports 2013 Case / eSports 2013 Case / eSports 2013 Case / eSports 2013 Case / eSports 2013 Case / eSports 2013 Case / eSports 2013 Case / eSports 2013 Case draws uniformly from every Restricted Pistol skin in the pool, so P250 | Splash is one of 3 equally likely results. These are the other 2.
| Outcome | Odds | Cheapest price |
|---|---|---|
| Sawed-Off | Orange DDPAT | 33.33% | $1807.00 |
| P250 | Splashyour target | 33.33% | $1780.00 |
| Galil AR | Orange DDPAT | 33.33% | $1674.00 |
Input float for each exterior
CS2 normalises float across a trade-up: each input’s float becomes a 0–1 position inside its own range, those are averaged, and the average is applied to P250 | Splash’s range of 0.06–0.18. To land a given exterior, your ten inputs must average the normalised float below.
| Target exterior | Output float | Required avg. input float |
|---|---|---|
| Factory New | 0.0650 | 0.0417 |
| Minimal Wear | 0.1100 | 0.4167 |
| Field-Tested | 0.1650 | 0.8750 |
| Well-Worn | — | not reachable |
| Battle-Scarred | — | not reachable |
“Not reachable” means P250 | Splash’s own float range never enters that exterior band — no combination of inputs can produce it.
What P250 | Splash is worth right now
Worth comparing against the contract cost above before you commit: buying the skin outright is frequently cheaper than rolling for it.
| Exterior | Price | vs. contract cost |
|---|---|---|
| Minimal Wear | $1780.00 | −$940.00 |
| Field-Tested | $2242.00 | −$478.00 |
| Factory New | $5397.00 | +$2677.00 |
Build this contract
Price a full ten-slot contract against live inputs, set your own float values, and see the outcome odds update as you go.