How to Trade Up to P250 | Splash
P250 | Splash drops from eSports 2013 Case, so any contract that can produce it needs 10 Mil-Spec skins from that same case. Here is what the contract costs, what else it can land on, and the input float you need for each exterior.
- Odds per contract
- 33.33% 1 in 3
- Contract cost from
- $27.10 10 × cheapest input
- Expected value
- $15.72 mean of the outcome pool
- Margin
- -42% $-11.38 per contract
Buying is cheaper than rolling. A Minimal Wear P250 | Splash costs $16.19 outright, against $27.10 for a contract with a 33.33% chance of producing one. Trade up for the process, not the value.
The contract
10 inputs, all Mil-Spec, all from eSports 2013 Case. Concentrating every input in one case is what keeps your odds at 33.33% — mixing cases splits the probability across both pools and lowers your chance at P250 | Splash specifically.
What else this contract can land on
A contract from eSports 2013 Case draws uniformly from every Restricted Pistol skin in the pool, so P250 | Splash is one of 3 equally likely results. These are the other 2.
| Outcome | Odds | Cheapest price |
|---|---|---|
| P250 | Splashyour target | 33.33% | $16.19 |
| Sawed-Off | Orange DDPAT | 33.33% | $15.81 |
| Galil AR | Orange DDPAT | 33.33% | $15.17 |
Input float for each exterior
CS2 normalises float across a trade-up: each input’s float becomes a 0–1 position inside its own range, those are averaged, and the average is applied to P250 | Splash’s range of 0.06–0.18. To land a given exterior, your ten inputs must average the normalised float below.
| Target exterior | Output float | Required avg. input float |
|---|---|---|
| Factory New | 0.0650 | 0.0417 |
| Minimal Wear | 0.1100 | 0.4167 |
| Field-Tested | 0.1650 | 0.8750 |
| Well-Worn | — | not reachable |
| Battle-Scarred | — | not reachable |
“Not reachable” means P250 | Splash’s own float range never enters that exterior band — no combination of inputs can produce it.
What P250 | Splash is worth right now
Worth comparing against the contract cost above before you commit: buying the skin outright is frequently cheaper than rolling for it.
| Exterior | Price | vs. contract cost |
|---|---|---|
| Minimal Wear | $16.19 | −$10.91 |
| Field-Tested | $21.70 | −$5.40 |
| Factory New | $47.10 | +$20.00 |
Build this contract
Price a full ten-slot contract against live inputs, set your own float values, and see the outcome odds update as you go.