How to Trade Up to P250 | Nevermore
P250 | Nevermore drops from Danger Zone Case, so any contract that can produce it needs 10 Mil-Spec skins from that same case. Here is what the contract costs, what else it can land on, and the input float you need for each exterior.
- Odds per contract
- 20% 1 in 5
- Contract cost from
- $1.30 10× cheapest input
- Expected value
- $0.62 mean of the outcome pool
- Margin
- -52.3% $-0.68 per contract
Buying is cheaper than rolling. A Field-Tested P250 | Nevermore costs $1.00 outright, against $1.30 for a contract with a 20% chance of producing one. Trade up for the process, not the value.
The contract
10 inputs, all Mil-Spec, all from Danger Zone Case. Concentrating every input in one case is what keeps your odds at 20% — mixing cases splits the probability across both pools and lowers your chance at P250 | Nevermore specifically.
Sawed-Off | Black Sand
Sawed-Off | Black Sand
Tec-9 | Fubar
MP9 | Modest Threat
SG 553 | Danger Close
Tec-9 | Fubar
MP9 | Modest Threat
M4A4 | Magnesium
Glock-18 | Oxide Blaze
Sawed-Off | Black Sand
Glock-18 | Oxide Blaze
SG 553 | Danger Close12 further eligible inputs are available — open the reverse trade-up calculator to price a full contract against your own inventory.
What else this contract can land on
A contract from Danger Zone Case draws uniformly from every Restricted Pistol skin in the pool, so P250 | Nevermore is one of 5 equally likely results. These are the other 4.
| Outcome | Odds | Cheapest price |
|---|---|---|
| P250 | Nevermoreyour target | 20% | $1.00 |
| Galil AR | Signal | 20% | $0.58 |
| USP-S | Flashback | 20% | $0.56 |
| G3SG1 | Scavenger | 20% | $0.47 |
| MAC-10 | Pipe Down | 20% | $0.47 |
Input float for each exterior
CS2 normalises float across a trade-up: each input’s float becomes a 0–1 position inside its own range, those are averaged, and the average is applied to P250 | Nevermore’s range of 0.00–0.40. To land a given exterior, your ten inputs must average the normalised float below.
| Target exterior | Output float | Required avg. input float |
|---|---|---|
| Factory New | 0.0350 | 0.0875 |
| Minimal Wear | 0.1100 | 0.2750 |
| Field-Tested | 0.2650 | 0.6625 |
| Well-Worn | 0.3900 | 0.9750 |
| Battle-Scarred | — | not reachable |
“Not reachable” means P250 | Nevermore’s own float range never enters that exterior band — no combination of inputs can produce it.
What P250 | Nevermore is worth right now
Worth comparing against the contract cost above before you commit: buying the skin outright is frequently cheaper than rolling for it.
| Exterior | Price | vs. contract cost |
|---|---|---|
| Field-Tested | $1.00 | −$0.30 |
| Minimal Wear | $1.20 | −$0.10 |
| Well-Worn | $1.52 | +$0.22 |
| Factory New | $3.03 | +$1.73 |
Build this contract
Price a full ten-slot contract against live inputs, set your own float values, and see the outcome odds update as you go.