How to Trade Up to P250 | Inferno
P250 | Inferno drops from CS20 Case, so any contract that can produce it needs 10 Mil-Spec skins from that same case. Here is what the contract costs, what else it can land on, and the input float you need for each exterior.
- Odds per contract
- 20% 1 in 5
- Contract cost from
- $2.60 10 × cheapest input
- Expected value
- $0.48 mean of the outcome pool
- Margin
- -81.5% $-2.12 per contract
Buying is cheaper than rolling. A Field-Tested P250 | Inferno costs $0.54 outright, against $2.60 for a contract with a 20% chance of producing one. Trade up for the process, not the value.
The contract
10 inputs, all Mil-Spec, all from CS20 Case. Concentrating every input in one case is what keeps your odds at 20% — mixing cases splits the probability across both pools and lowers your chance at P250 | Inferno specifically.
MAG-7 | Popdog
MAC-10 | Classic Crate
Glock-18 | Sacrifice
MAC-10 | Classic Crate
FAMAS | Decommissioned
Glock-18 | Sacrifice
FAMAS | Decommissioned
Tec-9 | Flash Out
Dual Berettas | Elite 1.6
SCAR-20 | Assault
MAG-7 | Popdog
Tec-9 | Flash Out12 further eligible inputs are available — open the reverse trade-up finder to price a full contract against your own inventory.
What else this contract can land on
A contract from CS20 Case draws uniformly from every Restricted Pistol skin in the pool, so P250 | Inferno is one of 5 equally likely results. These are the other 4.
| Outcome | Odds | Cheapest price |
|---|---|---|
| Five-SeveN | Buddy | 20% | $0.56 |
| P250 | Infernoyour target | 20% | $0.54 |
| UMP-45 | Plastique | 20% | $0.47 |
| M249 | Aztec | 20% | $0.43 |
| MP5-SD | Agent | 20% | $0.42 |
Input float for each exterior
CS2 normalises float across a trade-up: each input’s float becomes a 0–1 position inside its own range, those are averaged, and the average is applied to P250 | Inferno’s range of 0.00–0.68. To land a given exterior, your ten inputs must average the normalised float below.
| Target exterior | Output float | Required avg. input float |
|---|---|---|
| Factory New | 0.0350 | 0.0515 |
| Minimal Wear | 0.1100 | 0.1618 |
| Field-Tested | 0.2650 | 0.3897 |
| Well-Worn | 0.4150 | 0.6103 |
| Battle-Scarred | 0.5650 | 0.8309 |
“Not reachable” means P250 | Inferno’s own float range never enters that exterior band — no combination of inputs can produce it.
What P250 | Inferno is worth right now
Worth comparing against the contract cost above before you commit: buying the skin outright is frequently cheaper than rolling for it.
| Exterior | Price | vs. contract cost |
|---|---|---|
| Field-Tested | $0.54 | −$2.06 |
| Battle-Scarred | $0.65 | −$1.95 |
| Well-Worn | $0.72 | −$1.88 |
| Minimal Wear | $1.06 | −$1.54 |
| Factory New | $6.83 | +$4.23 |
Build this contract
Price a full ten-slot contract against live inputs, set your own float values, and see the outcome odds update as you go.