How to Trade Up to Nova | Rising Sun
Nova | Rising Sun drops from Fever Case, so any contract that can produce it needs 10 Mil-Spec skins from that same case. Here is what the contract costs, what else it can land on, and the input float you need for each exterior.
- Odds per contract
- 20% 1 in 5
- Contract cost from
- $0.70 10 × cheapest input
- Expected value
- $0.43 mean of the outcome pool
- Margin
- -38.6% $-0.27 per contract
Buying is cheaper than rolling. A Battle-Scarred Nova | Rising Sun costs $0.43 outright, against $0.70 for a contract with a 20% chance of producing one. Trade up for the process, not the value.
The contract
10 inputs, all Mil-Spec, all from Fever Case. Concentrating every input in one case is what keeps your odds at 20% — mixing cases splits the probability across both pools and lowers your chance at Nova | Rising Sun specifically.
MAG-7 | Resupply
XM1014 | Mockingbird
MP9 | Nexus
MP9 | Nexus
XM1014 | Mockingbird
P2000 | Sure Grip
P2000 | Sure Grip
P2000 | Sure Grip
XM1014 | Mockingbird
MAG-7 | Resupply
USP-S | PC-GRN
M4A4 | Choppa12 further eligible inputs are available — open the reverse trade-up calculator to price a full contract against your own inventory.
What else this contract can land on
A contract from Fever Case draws uniformly from every Restricted skin in the pool, so Nova | Rising Sun is one of 5 equally likely results. These are the other 4.
| Outcome | Odds | Cheapest price |
|---|---|---|
| Desert Eagle | Serpent Strike | 20% | $0.47 |
| Galil AR | Control | 20% | $0.43 |
| Nova | Rising Sunyour target | 20% | $0.43 |
| Zeus x27 | Tosai | 20% | $0.42 |
| P90 | Wave Breaker | 20% | $0.41 |
Input float for each exterior
CS2 normalises float across a trade-up: each input’s float becomes a 0–1 position inside its own range, those are averaged, and the average is applied to Nova | Rising Sun’s range of 0.00–1.00. To land a given exterior, your ten inputs must average the normalised float below.
| Target exterior | Output float | Required avg. input float |
|---|---|---|
| Factory New | 0.0350 | 0.0350 |
| Minimal Wear | 0.1100 | 0.1100 |
| Field-Tested | 0.2650 | 0.2650 |
| Well-Worn | 0.4150 | 0.4150 |
| Battle-Scarred | 0.7250 | 0.7250 |
“Not reachable” means Nova | Rising Sun’s own float range never enters that exterior band — no combination of inputs can produce it.
What Nova | Rising Sun is worth right now
Worth comparing against the contract cost above before you commit: buying the skin outright is frequently cheaper than rolling for it.
| Exterior | Price | vs. contract cost |
|---|---|---|
| Battle-Scarred | $0.43 | −$0.27 |
| Well-Worn | $0.44 | −$0.26 |
| Field-Tested | $0.49 | −$0.21 |
| Minimal Wear | $0.91 | +$0.21 |
| Factory New | $3.71 | +$3.01 |
Build this contract
Price a full ten-slot contract against live inputs, set your own float values, and see the outcome odds update as you go.