How to Trade Up to MP9 | Starlight Protector
MP9 | Starlight Protector drops from Dreams & Nightmares CaseDreams & Nightmares Case, Dreams & Nightmares Case, Dreams & Nightmares Case, Dreams & Nightmares Case, Dreams & Nightmares Case, Dreams & Nightmares Case, Dreams & Nightmares Case, Dreams & Nightmares Case, Dreams & Nightmares Case, Dreams & Nightmares Case, Dreams & Nightmares Case, Dreams & Nightmares Case, Dreams & Nightmares Case, Dreams & Nightmares Case, Dreams & Nightmares Case, Dreams & Nightmares Case, so any contract that can produce it needs 10 Classified skins from those same cases. Here is what the contract costs, what else it can land on, and the input float you need for each exterior.
- Odds per contract
- 50% 1 in 2
- Contract cost from
- $5960.00 10× cheapest input
- Expected value
- $6244.50 mean of the outcome pool
- Margin
- +4.8% +$284.50 per contract
This contract is EV-positive at floor prices. Ten cheapest inputs cost $5960.00 against an outcome pool averaging $6244.50 — $284.50 per contract. Individual rolls still vary; MP9 | Starlight Protector itself is only 50% of them.
The contract
Ten inputs, all Classified, all from Dreams & Nightmares CaseDreams & Nightmares Case or Dreams & Nightmares Case or Dreams & Nightmares Case or Dreams & Nightmares Case or Dreams & Nightmares Case or Dreams & Nightmares Case or Dreams & Nightmares Case or Dreams & Nightmares Case or Dreams & Nightmares Case or Dreams & Nightmares Case or Dreams & Nightmares Case or Dreams & Nightmares Case or Dreams & Nightmares Case or Dreams & Nightmares Case or Dreams & Nightmares Case or Dreams & Nightmares Case. Concentrating every input in one case is what keeps your odds at 50% — mixing cases splits the probability across both pools and lowers your chance at MP9 | Starlight Protector specifically.
FAMAS | Rapid Eye Movement
MP7 | Abyssal Apparition
Dual Berettas | Melondrama
FAMAS | Rapid Eye Movement
MP7 | Abyssal Apparition
Dual Berettas | Melondrama
FAMAS | Rapid Eye Movement
Dual Berettas | Melondrama
MP7 | Abyssal Apparition
Dual Berettas | Melondrama
MP7 | Abyssal Apparition
FAMAS | Rapid Eye Movement3 further eligible inputs are available — open the reverse trade-up calculator to price a full contract against your own inventory.
What else this contract can land on
A contract from Dreams & Nightmares CaseDreams & Nightmares Case / Dreams & Nightmares Case / Dreams & Nightmares Case / Dreams & Nightmares Case / Dreams & Nightmares Case / Dreams & Nightmares Case / Dreams & Nightmares Case / Dreams & Nightmares Case / Dreams & Nightmares Case / Dreams & Nightmares Case / Dreams & Nightmares Case / Dreams & Nightmares Case / Dreams & Nightmares Case / Dreams & Nightmares Case / Dreams & Nightmares Case / Dreams & Nightmares Case draws uniformly from every Covert SMG skin in the pool, so MP9 | Starlight Protector is one of 2 equally likely results. These are the other 1.
| Outcome | Odds | Cheapest price |
|---|---|---|
| MP9 | Starlight Protectoryour target | 50% | $6310.00 |
| AK-47 | Nightwish | 50% | $6179.00 |
Input float for each exterior
CS2 normalises float across a trade-up: each input’s float becomes a 0–1 position inside its own range, those are averaged, and the average is applied to MP9 | Starlight Protector’s range of 0.00–0.80. To land a given exterior, your ten inputs must average the normalised float below.
| Target exterior | Output float | Required avg. input float |
|---|---|---|
| Factory New | 0.0350 | 0.0438 |
| Minimal Wear | 0.1100 | 0.1375 |
| Field-Tested | 0.2650 | 0.3313 |
| Well-Worn | 0.4150 | 0.5188 |
| Battle-Scarred | 0.6250 | 0.7813 |
“Not reachable” means MP9 | Starlight Protector’s own float range never enters that exterior band — no combination of inputs can produce it.
What MP9 | Starlight Protector is worth right now
Worth comparing against the contract cost above before you commit: buying the skin outright is frequently cheaper than rolling for it.
| Exterior | Price | vs. contract cost |
|---|---|---|
| Battle-Scarred | $6310.00 | +$350.00 |
| Well-Worn | $6443.00 | +$483.00 |
| Field-Tested | $6717.00 | +$757.00 |
| Minimal Wear | $7084.00 | +$1124.00 |
| Factory New | $10159.00 | +$4199.00 |
Build this contract
Price a full ten-slot contract against live inputs, set your own float values, and see the outcome odds update as you go.