How to Trade Up to MP9 | Hydra
MP9 | Hydra drops from CS20 CaseCS20 Case, CS20 Case, CS20 Case, CS20 Case, CS20 Case, CS20 Case, CS20 Case, CS20 Case, CS20 Case, CS20 Case, CS20 Case, CS20 Case, CS20 Case, CS20 Case, CS20 Case, so any contract that can produce it needs 10 Restricted skins from those same cases. Here is what the contract costs, what else it can land on, and the input float you need for each exterior.
- Odds per contract
- 33.33% 1 in 3
- Contract cost from
- $480.00 10× cheapest input
- Expected value
- $433.67 mean of the outcome pool
- Margin
- -9.7% $-46.33 per contract
This contract is EV-negative. The cheapest ten inputs cost $480.00 and the outcome pool averages $433.67, so it loses $46.33 per contract on average even before you account for hitting the wrong skin.
The contract
Ten inputs, all Restricted, all from CS20 CaseCS20 Case or CS20 Case or CS20 Case or CS20 Case or CS20 Case or CS20 Case or CS20 Case or CS20 Case or CS20 Case or CS20 Case or CS20 Case or CS20 Case or CS20 Case or CS20 Case or CS20 Case. Concentrating every input in one case is what keeps your odds at 33.33% — mixing cases splits the probability across both pools and lowers your chance at MP9 | Hydra specifically.
MP5-SD | Agent
M249 | Aztec
MP5-SD | Agent
UMP-45 | Plastique
M249 | Aztec
P250 | Inferno
UMP-45 | Plastique
Five-SeveN | Buddy
M249 | Aztec
P250 | Inferno
MP5-SD | Agent
UMP-45 | Plastique12 further eligible inputs are available — open the reverse trade-up calculator to price a full contract against your own inventory.
What else this contract can land on
A contract from CS20 CaseCS20 Case / CS20 Case / CS20 Case / CS20 Case / CS20 Case / CS20 Case / CS20 Case / CS20 Case / CS20 Case / CS20 Case / CS20 Case / CS20 Case / CS20 Case / CS20 Case / CS20 Case draws uniformly from every Classified SMG skin in the pool, so MP9 | Hydra is one of 3 equally likely results. These are the other 2.
| Outcome | Odds | Cheapest price |
|---|---|---|
| MP9 | Hydrayour target | 33.33% | $532.00 |
| AUG | Death by Puppy | 33.33% | $393.00 |
| P90 | Nostalgia | 33.33% | $376.00 |
Input float for each exterior
CS2 normalises float across a trade-up: each input’s float becomes a 0–1 position inside its own range, those are averaged, and the average is applied to MP9 | Hydra’s range of 0.00–1.00. To land a given exterior, your ten inputs must average the normalised float below.
| Target exterior | Output float | Required avg. input float |
|---|---|---|
| Factory New | 0.0350 | 0.0350 |
| Minimal Wear | 0.1100 | 0.1100 |
| Field-Tested | 0.2650 | 0.2650 |
| Well-Worn | 0.4150 | 0.4150 |
| Battle-Scarred | 0.7250 | 0.7250 |
“Not reachable” means MP9 | Hydra’s own float range never enters that exterior band — no combination of inputs can produce it.
What MP9 | Hydra is worth right now
Worth comparing against the contract cost above before you commit: buying the skin outright is frequently cheaper than rolling for it.
| Exterior | Price | vs. contract cost |
|---|---|---|
| Battle-Scarred | $532.00 | +$52.00 |
| Well-Worn | $541.00 | +$61.00 |
| Field-Tested | $594.00 | +$114.00 |
| Minimal Wear | $1194.00 | +$714.00 |
| Factory New | $4722.00 | +$4242.00 |
Build this contract
Price a full ten-slot contract against live inputs, set your own float values, and see the outcome odds update as you go.