How to Trade Up to MP7 | Special Delivery
MP7 | Special Delivery drops from Shadow Case, so any contract that can produce it needs 10 Mil-Spec skins from that same case. Here is what the contract costs, what else it can land on, and the input float you need for each exterior.
- Odds per contract
- 25% 1 in 4
- Contract cost from
- $2.00 10× cheapest input
- Expected value
- $1.33 mean of the outcome pool
- Margin
- -33.5% $-0.67 per contract
Buying is cheaper than rolling. A Field-Tested MP7 | Special Delivery costs $1.14 outright, against $2.00 for a contract with a 25% chance of producing one. Trade up for the process, not the value.
The contract
10 inputs, all Mil-Spec, all from Shadow Case. Concentrating every input in one case is what keeps your odds at 25% — mixing cases splits the probability across both pools and lowers your chance at MP7 | Special Delivery specifically.
XM1014 | Scumbria
SCAR-20 | Green Marine
XM1014 | Scumbria
SCAR-20 | Green Marine
XM1014 | Scumbria
MAG-7 | Cobalt Core
Dual Berettas | Dualing Dragons
MAC-10 | Rangeen
Dual Berettas | Dualing Dragons
FAMAS | Survivor Z
MAG-7 | Cobalt Core
MAC-10 | Rangeen12 further eligible inputs are available — open the reverse trade-up calculator to price a full contract against your own inventory.
What else this contract can land on
A contract from Shadow Case draws uniformly from every Restricted SMG skin in the pool, so MP7 | Special Delivery is one of 4 equally likely results. These are the other 3.
| Outcome | Odds | Cheapest price |
|---|---|---|
| Galil AR | Stone Cold | 25% | $1.93 |
| P250 | Wingshot | 25% | $1.19 |
| MP7 | Special Deliveryyour target | 25% | $1.14 |
| M249 | Nebula Crusader | 25% | $1.04 |
Input float for each exterior
CS2 normalises float across a trade-up: each input’s float becomes a 0–1 position inside its own range, those are averaged, and the average is applied to MP7 | Special Delivery’s range of 0.00–0.62. To land a given exterior, your ten inputs must average the normalised float below.
| Target exterior | Output float | Required avg. input float |
|---|---|---|
| Factory New | 0.0350 | 0.0565 |
| Minimal Wear | 0.1100 | 0.1774 |
| Field-Tested | 0.2650 | 0.4274 |
| Well-Worn | 0.4150 | 0.6694 |
| Battle-Scarred | 0.5350 | 0.8629 |
“Not reachable” means MP7 | Special Delivery’s own float range never enters that exterior band — no combination of inputs can produce it.
What MP7 | Special Delivery is worth right now
Worth comparing against the contract cost above before you commit: buying the skin outright is frequently cheaper than rolling for it.
| Exterior | Price | vs. contract cost |
|---|---|---|
| Field-Tested | $1.14 | −$0.86 |
| Battle-Scarred | $1.23 | −$0.77 |
| Well-Worn | $1.61 | −$0.39 |
| Minimal Wear | $1.82 | −$0.18 |
| Factory New | $7.88 | +$5.88 |
Build this contract
Price a full ten-slot contract against live inputs, set your own float values, and see the outcome odds update as you go.