How to Trade Up to MP7 | Smoking Kills
MP7 | Smoking Kills drops from Sealed Genesis Terminal, so any contract that can produce it needs 10 Restricted skins from that same case. Here is what the contract costs, what else it can land on, and the input float you need for each exterior.
- Odds per contract
- 33.33% 1 in 3
- Contract cost from
- $400.00 10× cheapest input
- Expected value
- $390.33 mean of the outcome pool
- Margin
- -2.4% $-9.67 per contract
This contract is EV-negative. The cheapest ten inputs cost $400.00 and the outcome pool averages $390.33, so it loses $9.67 per contract on average even before you account for hitting the wrong skin.
The contract
Ten inputs, all Restricted, all from Sealed Genesis Terminal. Concentrating every input in one case is what keeps your odds at 33.33% — mixing cases splits the probability across both pools and lowers your chance at MP7 | Smoking Kills specifically.
Nova | Ocular
Dual Berettas | Angel Eyes
UMP-45 | Continuum
MAC-10 | Cat Fight
Dual Berettas | Angel Eyes
UMP-45 | Continuum
MAC-10 | Cat Fight
Nova | Ocular
Dual Berettas | Angel Eyes
Nova | Ocular
MAC-10 | Cat Fight
UMP-45 | Continuum12 further eligible inputs are available — open the reverse trade-up calculator to price a full contract against your own inventory.
What else this contract can land on
A contract from Sealed Genesis Terminal draws uniformly from every Classified skin in the pool, so MP7 | Smoking Kills is one of 3 equally likely results. These are the other 2.
| Outcome | Odds | Cheapest price |
|---|---|---|
| MP7 | Smoking Killsyour target | 33.33% | $415.00 |
| AWP | Ice Coaled | 33.33% | $401.00 |
| Glock-18 | Mirror Mosaic | 33.33% | $355.00 |
Input float for each exterior
CS2 normalises float across a trade-up: each input’s float becomes a 0–1 position inside its own range, those are averaged, and the average is applied to MP7 | Smoking Kills’s range of 0.00–1.00. To land a given exterior, your ten inputs must average the normalised float below.
| Target exterior | Output float | Required avg. input float |
|---|---|---|
| Factory New | 0.0350 | 0.0350 |
| Minimal Wear | 0.1100 | 0.1100 |
| Field-Tested | 0.2650 | 0.2650 |
| Well-Worn | 0.4150 | 0.4150 |
| Battle-Scarred | 0.7250 | 0.7250 |
“Not reachable” means MP7 | Smoking Kills’s own float range never enters that exterior band — no combination of inputs can produce it.
What MP7 | Smoking Kills is worth right now
Worth comparing against the contract cost above before you commit: buying the skin outright is frequently cheaper than rolling for it.
| Exterior | Price | vs. contract cost |
|---|---|---|
| Battle-Scarred | $415.00 | +$15.00 |
| Well-Worn | $464.00 | +$64.00 |
| Field-Tested | $641.00 | +$241.00 |
| Minimal Wear | $1212.00 | +$812.00 |
| Factory New | $2950.00 | +$2550.00 |
Build this contract
Price a full ten-slot contract against live inputs, set your own float values, and see the outcome odds update as you go.