How to Trade Up to MP7 | Nemesis
MP7 | Nemesis drops from Falchion CaseFalchion Case, Falchion Case, Falchion Case, Falchion Case, Falchion Case, Falchion Case, Falchion Case, Falchion Case, Falchion Case, Falchion Case, Falchion Case, Falchion Case, Falchion Case, Falchion Case, Falchion Case, so any contract that can produce it needs 10 Restricted skins from those same cases. Here is what the contract costs, what else it can land on, and the input float you need for each exterior.
- Odds per contract
- 33.33% 1 in 3
- Contract cost from
- $680.00 10× cheapest input
- Expected value
- $500.67 mean of the outcome pool
- Margin
- -26.4% $-179.33 per contract
This contract is EV-negative. The cheapest ten inputs cost $680.00 and the outcome pool averages $500.67, so it loses $179.33 per contract on average even before you account for hitting the wrong skin.
The contract
Ten inputs, all Restricted, all from Falchion CaseFalchion Case or Falchion Case or Falchion Case or Falchion Case or Falchion Case or Falchion Case or Falchion Case or Falchion Case or Falchion Case or Falchion Case or Falchion Case or Falchion Case or Falchion Case or Falchion Case or Falchion Case. Concentrating every input in one case is what keeps your odds at 33.33% — mixing cases splits the probability across both pools and lowers your chance at MP7 | Nemesis specifically.
P2000 | Handgun
P2000 | Handgun
Negev | Loudmouth
Negev | Loudmouth
Negev | Loudmouth
FAMAS | Neural Net
P2000 | Handgun
FAMAS | Neural Net
MP9 | Ruby Poison Dart
MP9 | Ruby Poison Dart
FAMAS | Neural Net
MP9 | Ruby Poison Dart12 further eligible inputs are available — open the reverse trade-up calculator to price a full contract against your own inventory.
What else this contract can land on
A contract from Falchion CaseFalchion Case / Falchion Case / Falchion Case / Falchion Case / Falchion Case / Falchion Case / Falchion Case / Falchion Case / Falchion Case / Falchion Case / Falchion Case / Falchion Case / Falchion Case / Falchion Case / Falchion Case draws uniformly from every Classified SMG skin in the pool, so MP7 | Nemesis is one of 3 equally likely results. These are the other 2.
| Outcome | Odds | Cheapest price |
|---|---|---|
| MP7 | Nemesisyour target | 33.33% | $728.00 |
| CZ75-Auto | Yellow Jacket | 33.33% | $408.00 |
| SG 553 | Cyrex | 33.33% | $366.00 |
Input float for each exterior
CS2 normalises float across a trade-up: each input’s float becomes a 0–1 position inside its own range, those are averaged, and the average is applied to MP7 | Nemesis’s range of 0.00–0.32. To land a given exterior, your ten inputs must average the normalised float below.
| Target exterior | Output float | Required avg. input float |
|---|---|---|
| Factory New | 0.0350 | 0.1094 |
| Minimal Wear | 0.1100 | 0.3438 |
| Field-Tested | 0.2350 | 0.7344 |
| Well-Worn | — | not reachable |
| Battle-Scarred | — | not reachable |
“Not reachable” means MP7 | Nemesis’s own float range never enters that exterior band — no combination of inputs can produce it.
What MP7 | Nemesis is worth right now
Worth comparing against the contract cost above before you commit: buying the skin outright is frequently cheaper than rolling for it.
| Exterior | Price | vs. contract cost |
|---|---|---|
| Field-Tested | $728.00 | +$48.00 |
| Minimal Wear | $763.00 | +$83.00 |
| Factory New | $2650.00 | +$1970.00 |
Build this contract
Price a full ten-slot contract against live inputs, set your own float values, and see the outcome odds update as you go.