How to Trade Up to M249 | Downtown
M249 | Downtown drops from Recoil Case, so any contract that can produce it needs 10 Mil-Spec skins from that same case. Here is what the contract costs, what else it can land on, and the input float you need for each exterior.
- Odds per contract
- 20% 1 in 5
- Contract cost from
- $0.60 10 × cheapest input
- Expected value
- $0.34 mean of the outcome pool
- Margin
- -43.3% $-0.26 per contract
Buying is cheaper than rolling. A Battle-Scarred M249 | Downtown costs $0.33 outright, against $0.60 for a contract with a 20% chance of producing one. Trade up for the process, not the value.
The contract
10 inputs, all Mil-Spec, all from Recoil Case. Concentrating every input in one case is what keeps your odds at 20% — mixing cases splits the probability across both pools and lowers your chance at M249 | Downtown specifically.
UMP-45 | Roadblock
FAMAS | Meow 36
Negev | Drop Me
UMP-45 | Roadblock
MAC-10 | Monkeyflage
FAMAS | Meow 36
UMP-45 | Roadblock
MAC-10 | Monkeyflage
Negev | Drop Me
MAC-10 | Monkeyflage
Glock-18 | Winterized
FAMAS | Meow 3612 further eligible inputs are available — open the reverse trade-up finder to price a full contract against your own inventory.
What else this contract can land on
A contract from Recoil Case draws uniformly from every Restricted Machinegun skin in the pool, so M249 | Downtown is one of 5 equally likely results. These are the other 4.
| Outcome | Odds | Cheapest price |
|---|---|---|
| SG 553 | Dragon Tech | 20% | $0.35 |
| R8 Revolver | Crazy 8 | 20% | $0.34 |
| P90 | Vent Rush | 20% | $0.34 |
| M249 | Downtownyour target | 20% | $0.33 |
| Dual Berettas | Flora Carnivora | 20% | $0.33 |
Input float for each exterior
CS2 normalises float across a trade-up: each input’s float becomes a 0–1 position inside its own range, those are averaged, and the average is applied to M249 | Downtown’s range of 0.00–0.65. To land a given exterior, your ten inputs must average the normalised float below.
| Target exterior | Output float | Required avg. input float |
|---|---|---|
| Factory New | 0.0350 | 0.0538 |
| Minimal Wear | 0.1100 | 0.1692 |
| Field-Tested | 0.2650 | 0.4077 |
| Well-Worn | 0.4150 | 0.6385 |
| Battle-Scarred | 0.5500 | 0.8462 |
“Not reachable” means M249 | Downtown’s own float range never enters that exterior band — no combination of inputs can produce it.
What M249 | Downtown is worth right now
Worth comparing against the contract cost above before you commit: buying the skin outright is frequently cheaper than rolling for it.
| Exterior | Price | vs. contract cost |
|---|---|---|
| Battle-Scarred | $0.33 | −$0.27 |
| Well-Worn | $0.35 | −$0.25 |
| Field-Tested | $0.36 | −$0.24 |
| Minimal Wear | $0.54 | −$0.06 |
| Factory New | $1.14 | +$0.54 |
Build this contract
Price a full ten-slot contract against live inputs, set your own float values, and see the outcome odds update as you go.