How to Trade Up to Glock-18 | Groundwater
Glock-18 | Groundwater drops from DreamHack 2013 Souvenir Package, EMS One 2014 Souvenir Package, ESL One Cologne 2014 Mirage Souvenir Package, DreamHack 2014 Mirage Souvenir Package, ESL One Katowice 2015 Mirage Souvenir Package, ESL One Cologne 2015 Mirage Souvenir Package, DreamHack Cluj-Napoca 2015 Mirage Souvenir Package, MLG Columbus 2016 Mirage Souvenir Package, Cologne 2016 Mirage Souvenir Package, Atlanta 2017 Mirage Souvenir Package, Krakow 2017 Mirage Souvenir Package, Boston 2018 Mirage Souvenir Package, London 2018 Mirage Souve, so any contract that can produce it needs 10 Consumer Grade skins from those same cases. Here is what the contract costs, what else it can land on, and the input float you need for each exterior.
- Odds per contract
- 3.03% 1 in 33
- Contract cost from
- $20.00 10× cheapest input
- Expected value
- $226.36 mean of the outcome pool
- Margin
- +1031.8% +$206.36 per contract
This contract is EV-positive at floor prices. Ten cheapest inputs cost $20.00 against an outcome pool averaging $226.36 — $206.36 per contract. Individual rolls still vary; Glock-18 | Groundwater itself is only 3.03% of them.
The contract
Ten inputs, all Consumer Grade, all from DreamHack 2013 Souvenir Package or EMS One 2014 Souvenir Package or ESL One Cologne 2014 Mirage Souvenir Package or DreamHack 2014 Mirage Souvenir Package or ESL One Katowice 2015 Mirage Souvenir Package or ESL One Cologne 2015 Mirage Souvenir Package or DreamHack Cluj-Napoca 2015 Mirage Souvenir Package or MLG Columbus 2016 Mirage Souvenir Package or Cologne 2016 Mirage Souvenir Package or Atlanta 2017 Mirage Souvenir Package or Krakow 2017 Mirage Souvenir Package or Boston 2018 Mirage Souvenir Package or London 2018 Mirage Souve. Concentrating every input in one case is what keeps your odds at 3.03% — mixing cases splits the probability across both pools and lowers your chance at Glock-18 | Groundwater specifically.
MP9 | Sand Dashed
FAMAS | Colony
G3SG1 | Desert Storm
PP-Bizon | Urban Dashed
MP7 | Army Recon
Dual Berettas | Colony
Tec-9 | Army Mesh
G3SG1 | Polar Camo
PP-Bizon | Urban Dashed
UMP-45 | Urban DDPAT
G3SG1 | Desert Storm
FAMAS | Colony12 further eligible inputs are available — open the reverse trade-up calculator to price a full contract against your own inventory.
What else this contract can land on
A contract from DreamHack 2013 Souvenir Package / EMS One 2014 Souvenir Package / ESL One Cologne 2014 Mirage Souvenir Package / DreamHack 2014 Mirage Souvenir Package / ESL One Katowice 2015 Mirage Souvenir Package / ESL One Cologne 2015 Mirage Souvenir Package / DreamHack Cluj-Napoca 2015 Mirage Souvenir Package / MLG Columbus 2016 Mirage Souvenir Package / Cologne 2016 Mirage Souvenir Package / Atlanta 2017 Mirage Souvenir Package / Krakow 2017 Mirage Souvenir Package / Boston 2018 Mirage Souvenir Package / London 2018 Mirage Souve draws uniformly from every Industrial Grade Pistol skin in the pool, so Glock-18 | Groundwater is one of 33 equally likely results. These are the other 32.
Input float for each exterior
CS2 normalises float across a trade-up: each input’s float becomes a 0–1 position inside its own range, those are averaged, and the average is applied to Glock-18 | Groundwater’s range of 0.06–0.80. To land a given exterior, your ten inputs must average the normalised float below.
| Target exterior | Output float | Required avg. input float |
|---|---|---|
| Factory New | 0.0650 | 0.0068 |
| Minimal Wear | 0.1100 | 0.0676 |
| Field-Tested | 0.2650 | 0.2770 |
| Well-Worn | 0.4150 | 0.4797 |
| Battle-Scarred | 0.6250 | 0.7635 |
“Not reachable” means Glock-18 | Groundwater’s own float range never enters that exterior band — no combination of inputs can produce it.
What Glock-18 | Groundwater is worth right now
Worth comparing against the contract cost above before you commit: buying the skin outright is frequently cheaper than rolling for it.
| Exterior | Price | vs. contract cost |
|---|---|---|
| Field-Tested | $1415.00 | +$1395.00 |
| Battle-Scarred | $1834.00 | +$1814.00 |
| Minimal Wear | $1926.00 | +$1906.00 |
| Well-Worn | $2346.00 | +$2326.00 |
| Factory New | $12134.00 | +$12114.00 |
Build this contract
Price a full ten-slot contract against live inputs, set your own float values, and see the outcome odds update as you go.