How to Trade Up to Glock-18 | Grinder
Glock-18 | Grinder drops from Operation Vanguard Weapon Case, so any contract that can produce it needs 10 Mil-Spec skins from that same case. Here is what the contract costs, what else it can land on, and the input float you need for each exterior.
- Odds per contract
- 25% 1 in 4
- Contract cost from
- $6.00 10 × cheapest input
- Expected value
- $3.51 mean of the outcome pool
- Margin
- -41.5% $-2.49 per contract
Buying is cheaper than rolling. A Minimal Wear Glock-18 | Grinder costs $2.30 outright, against $6.00 for a contract with a 25% chance of producing one. Trade up for the process, not the value.
The contract
10 inputs, all Mil-Spec, all from Operation Vanguard Weapon Case. Concentrating every input in one case is what keeps your odds at 25% — mixing cases splits the probability across both pools and lowers your chance at Glock-18 | Grinder specifically.
G3SG1 | Murky
MAG-7 | Firestarter
G3SG1 | Murky
UMP-45 | Delusion
MP9 | Dart
MAG-7 | Firestarter
MP9 | Dart
MAG-7 | Firestarter
MP9 | Dart
UMP-45 | Delusion
G3SG1 | Murky
Five-SeveN | Urban Hazard7 further eligible inputs are available — open the reverse trade-up finder to price a full contract against your own inventory.
What else this contract can land on
A contract from Operation Vanguard Weapon Case draws uniformly from every Restricted Pistol skin in the pool, so Glock-18 | Grinder is one of 4 equally likely results. These are the other 3.
| Outcome | Odds | Cheapest price |
|---|---|---|
| M4A1-S | Basilisk | 25% | $7.47 |
| M4A4 | Griffin | 25% | $2.75 |
| Glock-18 | Grinderyour target | 25% | $2.30 |
| Sawed-Off | Highwayman | 25% | $1.53 |
Input float for each exterior
CS2 normalises float across a trade-up: each input’s float becomes a 0–1 position inside its own range, those are averaged, and the average is applied to Glock-18 | Grinder’s range of 0.02–0.25. To land a given exterior, your ten inputs must average the normalised float below.
| Target exterior | Output float | Required avg. input float |
|---|---|---|
| Factory New | 0.0450 | 0.1087 |
| Minimal Wear | 0.1100 | 0.3913 |
| Field-Tested | 0.2000 | 0.7826 |
| Well-Worn | — | not reachable |
| Battle-Scarred | — | not reachable |
“Not reachable” means Glock-18 | Grinder’s own float range never enters that exterior band — no combination of inputs can produce it.
What Glock-18 | Grinder is worth right now
Worth comparing against the contract cost above before you commit: buying the skin outright is frequently cheaper than rolling for it.
| Exterior | Price | vs. contract cost |
|---|---|---|
| Minimal Wear | $2.30 | −$3.70 |
| Field-Tested | $2.32 | −$3.68 |
| Factory New | $8.51 | +$2.51 |
Build this contract
Price a full ten-slot contract against live inputs, set your own float values, and see the outcome odds update as you go.