How to Trade Up to Glock-18 | Candy Apple
Glock-18 | Candy Apple drops from DreamHack 2013 Souvenir Package, EMS One 2014 Souvenir Package, so any contract that can produce it needs 10 Industrial Grade skins from those same cases. Here is what the contract costs, what else it can land on, and the input float you need for each exterior.
- Odds per contract
- 33.33% 1 in 3
- Contract cost from
- $1.10 10 × cheapest input
- Expected value
- $0.76 mean of the outcome pool
- Margin
- -30.9% $-0.34 per contract
This contract is EV-negative. The cheapest ten inputs cost $1.10 and the outcome pool averages $0.76, so it loses $0.34 per contract on average even before you account for hitting the wrong skin.
The contract
10 inputs, all Industrial Grade, all from DreamHack 2013 Souvenir Package or EMS One 2014 Souvenir Package. Concentrating every input in one case is what keeps your odds at 33.33% — mixing cases splits the probability across both pools and lowers your chance at Glock-18 | Candy Apple specifically.
Dual Berettas | Stained
UMP-45 | Gunsmoke
P2000 | Granite Marbleized
Dual Berettas | Stained
XM1014 | CaliCamo
UMP-45 | Gunsmoke
UMP-45 | Gunsmoke
XM1014 | CaliCamo
P2000 | Granite Marbleized
XM1014 | CaliCamo
Dual Berettas | Stained
P2000 | Granite Marbleized12 further eligible inputs are available — open the reverse trade-up calculator to price a full contract against your own inventory.
What else this contract can land on
A contract from DreamHack 2013 Souvenir Package / EMS One 2014 Souvenir Package draws uniformly from every Mil-Spec Grade Pistol skin in the pool, so Glock-18 | Candy Apple is one of 3 equally likely results. These are the other 2.
| Outcome | Odds | Cheapest price |
|---|---|---|
| Glock-18 | Candy Appleyour target | 33.33% | $1.13 |
| MP7 | Anodized Navy | 33.33% | $1.00 |
| Sawed-Off | Full Stop | 33.33% | $0.15 |
Input float for each exterior
CS2 normalises float across a trade-up: each input’s float becomes a 0–1 position inside its own range, those are averaged, and the average is applied to Glock-18 | Candy Apple’s range of 0.00–0.30. To land a given exterior, your ten inputs must average the normalised float below.
| Target exterior | Output float | Required avg. input float |
|---|---|---|
| Factory New | 0.0350 | 0.1167 |
| Minimal Wear | 0.1100 | 0.3667 |
| Field-Tested | 0.2250 | 0.7500 |
| Well-Worn | — | not reachable |
| Battle-Scarred | — | not reachable |
“Not reachable” means Glock-18 | Candy Apple’s own float range never enters that exterior band — no combination of inputs can produce it.
What Glock-18 | Candy Apple is worth right now
Worth comparing against the contract cost above before you commit: buying the skin outright is frequently cheaper than rolling for it.
| Exterior | Price | vs. contract cost |
|---|---|---|
| Field-Tested | $1.13 | +$0.03 |
| Minimal Wear | $1.27 | +$0.17 |
| Factory New | $2.00 | +$0.90 |
Build this contract
Price a full ten-slot contract against live inputs, set your own float values, and see the outcome odds update as you go.