How to Trade Up to Galil AR | Stone Cold
Galil AR | Stone Cold drops from Shadow Case, so any contract that can produce it needs 10 Mil-Spec skins from that same case. Here is what the contract costs, what else it can land on, and the input float you need for each exterior.
- Odds per contract
- 25% 1 in 4
- Contract cost from
- $1.90 10 × cheapest input
- Expected value
- $1.28 mean of the outcome pool
- Margin
- -32.6% $-0.62 per contract
This contract is EV-negative. The cheapest ten inputs cost $1.90 and the outcome pool averages $1.28, so it loses $0.62 per contract on average even before you account for hitting the wrong skin.
The contract
10 inputs, all Mil-Spec, all from Shadow Case. Concentrating every input in one case is what keeps your odds at 25% — mixing cases splits the probability across both pools and lowers your chance at Galil AR | Stone Cold specifically.
XM1014 | Scumbria
XM1014 | Scumbria
SCAR-20 | Green Marine
SCAR-20 | Green Marine
XM1014 | Scumbria
FAMAS | Survivor Z
Dual Berettas | Dualing Dragons
FAMAS | Survivor Z
Dual Berettas | Dualing Dragons
MAC-10 | Rangeen
MAC-10 | Rangeen
FAMAS | Survivor Z12 further eligible inputs are available — open the reverse trade-up finder to price a full contract against your own inventory.
What else this contract can land on
A contract from Shadow Case draws uniformly from every Restricted Rifle skin in the pool, so Galil AR | Stone Cold is one of 4 equally likely results. These are the other 3.
| Outcome | Odds | Cheapest price |
|---|---|---|
| Galil AR | Stone Coldyour target | 25% | $1.92 |
| P250 | Wingshot | 25% | $1.13 |
| MP7 | Special Delivery | 25% | $1.04 |
| M249 | Nebula Crusader | 25% | $1.02 |
Input float for each exterior
CS2 normalises float across a trade-up: each input’s float becomes a 0–1 position inside its own range, those are averaged, and the average is applied to Galil AR | Stone Cold’s range of 0.00–0.90. To land a given exterior, your ten inputs must average the normalised float below.
| Target exterior | Output float | Required avg. input float |
|---|---|---|
| Factory New | 0.0350 | 0.0389 |
| Minimal Wear | 0.1100 | 0.1222 |
| Field-Tested | 0.2650 | 0.2944 |
| Well-Worn | 0.4150 | 0.4611 |
| Battle-Scarred | 0.6750 | 0.7500 |
“Not reachable” means Galil AR | Stone Cold’s own float range never enters that exterior band — no combination of inputs can produce it.
What Galil AR | Stone Cold is worth right now
Worth comparing against the contract cost above before you commit: buying the skin outright is frequently cheaper than rolling for it.
| Exterior | Price | vs. contract cost |
|---|---|---|
| Battle-Scarred | $1.92 | +$0.02 |
| Well-Worn | $2.26 | +$0.36 |
| Field-Tested | $2.51 | +$0.61 |
| Minimal Wear | $5.02 | +$3.12 |
| Factory New | $20.25 | +$18.35 |
Build this contract
Price a full ten-slot contract against live inputs, set your own float values, and see the outcome odds update as you go.