How to Trade Up to FAMAS | Dark Water
FAMAS | Dark Water drops from Stockholm 2021 Ancient Souvenir Package, Antwerp 2022 Ancient Souvenir Package, Rio 2022 Ancient Souvenir Package, Paris 2023 Ancient Souvenir Package, Copenhagen 2024 Ancient Souvenir Package, so any contract that can produce it needs 10 Industrial Grade skins from those same cases. Here is what the contract costs, what else it can land on, and the input float you need for each exterior.
- Odds per contract
- 25% 1 in 4
- Contract cost from
- $1750.00 10× cheapest input
- Expected value
- $532.00 mean of the outcome pool
- Margin
- -69.6% $-1218.00 per contract
Buying is cheaper than rolling. A Field-Tested FAMAS | Dark Water costs $405.00 outright, against $1750.00 for a contract with a 25% chance of producing one. Trade up for the process, not the value.
The contract
Ten inputs, all Industrial Grade, all from Stockholm 2021 Ancient Souvenir Package or Antwerp 2022 Ancient Souvenir Package or Rio 2022 Ancient Souvenir Package or Paris 2023 Ancient Souvenir Package or Copenhagen 2024 Ancient Souvenir Package. Concentrating every input in one case is what keeps your odds at 25% — mixing cases splits the probability across both pools and lowers your chance at FAMAS | Dark Water specifically.
MP7 | Tall Grass
G3SG1 | Ancient Ritual
P2000 | Panther Camo
MP7 | Tall Grass
G3SG1 | Ancient Ritual
G3SG1 | Ancient Ritual
P2000 | Panther Camo
MP7 | Tall Grass
MP7 | Tall Grass
P2000 | Panther Camo
G3SG1 | Ancient Ritual
CZ75-Auto | Silver5 further eligible inputs are available — open the reverse trade-up calculator to price a full contract against your own inventory.
What else this contract can land on
A contract from Stockholm 2021 Ancient Souvenir Package / Antwerp 2022 Ancient Souvenir Package / Rio 2022 Ancient Souvenir Package / Paris 2023 Ancient Souvenir Package / Copenhagen 2024 Ancient Souvenir Package draws uniformly from every Mil-Spec Grade Rifle skin in the pool, so FAMAS | Dark Water is one of 4 equally likely results. These are the other 3.
| Outcome | Odds | Cheapest price |
|---|---|---|
| AUG | Carved Jade | 25% | $861.00 |
| Galil AR | Dusk Ruins | 25% | $468.00 |
| FAMAS | Dark Wateryour target | 25% | $405.00 |
| Tec-9 | Blast From the Past | 25% | $394.00 |
Input float for each exterior
CS2 normalises float across a trade-up: each input’s float becomes a 0–1 position inside its own range, those are averaged, and the average is applied to FAMAS | Dark Water’s range of 0.10–0.26. To land a given exterior, your ten inputs must average the normalised float below.
| Target exterior | Output float | Required avg. input float |
|---|---|---|
| Factory New | — | not reachable |
| Minimal Wear | 0.1250 | 0.1562 |
| Field-Tested | 0.2050 | 0.6563 |
| Well-Worn | — | not reachable |
| Battle-Scarred | — | not reachable |
“Not reachable” means FAMAS | Dark Water’s own float range never enters that exterior band — no combination of inputs can produce it.
What FAMAS | Dark Water is worth right now
Worth comparing against the contract cost above before you commit: buying the skin outright is frequently cheaper than rolling for it.
| Exterior | Price | vs. contract cost |
|---|---|---|
| Field-Tested | $405.00 | −$1345.00 |
| Minimal Wear | $2367.00 | +$617.00 |
Build this contract
Price a full ten-slot contract against live inputs, set your own float values, and see the outcome odds update as you go.