How to Trade Up to AK-47 | Ice Coaled
AK-47 | Ice Coaled drops from Recoil CaseRecoil Case, Recoil Case, Recoil Case, Recoil Case, Recoil Case, Recoil Case, Recoil Case, Recoil Case, Recoil Case, Recoil Case, Recoil Case, Recoil Case, Recoil Case, Recoil Case, Recoil Case, Recoil Case, so any contract that can produce it needs 10 Restricted skins from those same cases. Here is what the contract costs, what else it can land on, and the input float you need for each exterior.
- Odds per contract
- 33.33% 1 in 3
- Contract cost from
- $350.00 10× cheapest input
- Expected value
- $343.33 mean of the outcome pool
- Margin
- -1.9% $-6.67 per contract
This contract is EV-negative. The cheapest ten inputs cost $350.00 and the outcome pool averages $343.33, so it loses $6.67 per contract on average even before you account for hitting the wrong skin.
The contract
Ten inputs, all Restricted, all from Recoil CaseRecoil Case or Recoil Case or Recoil Case or Recoil Case or Recoil Case or Recoil Case or Recoil Case or Recoil Case or Recoil Case or Recoil Case or Recoil Case or Recoil Case or Recoil Case or Recoil Case or Recoil Case or Recoil Case. Concentrating every input in one case is what keeps your odds at 33.33% — mixing cases splits the probability across both pools and lowers your chance at AK-47 | Ice Coaled specifically.
SG 553 | Dragon Tech
M249 | Downtown
P90 | Vent Rush
R8 Revolver | Crazy 8
Dual Berettas | Flora Carnivora
Dual Berettas | Flora Carnivora
P90 | Vent Rush
P90 | Vent Rush
M249 | Downtown
SG 553 | Dragon Tech
R8 Revolver | Crazy 8
M249 | Downtown12 further eligible inputs are available — open the reverse trade-up calculator to price a full contract against your own inventory.
What else this contract can land on
A contract from Recoil CaseRecoil Case / Recoil Case / Recoil Case / Recoil Case / Recoil Case / Recoil Case / Recoil Case / Recoil Case / Recoil Case / Recoil Case / Recoil Case / Recoil Case / Recoil Case / Recoil Case / Recoil Case / Recoil Case draws uniformly from every Classified Rifle skin in the pool, so AK-47 | Ice Coaled is one of 3 equally likely results. These are the other 2.
| Outcome | Odds | Cheapest price |
|---|---|---|
| AK-47 | Ice Coaledyour target | 33.33% | $391.00 |
| P250 | Visions | 33.33% | $321.00 |
| Sawed-Off | Kiss♥Love | 33.33% | $318.00 |
Input float for each exterior
CS2 normalises float across a trade-up: each input’s float becomes a 0–1 position inside its own range, those are averaged, and the average is applied to AK-47 | Ice Coaled’s range of 0.00–1.00. To land a given exterior, your ten inputs must average the normalised float below.
| Target exterior | Output float | Required avg. input float |
|---|---|---|
| Factory New | 0.0350 | 0.0350 |
| Minimal Wear | 0.1100 | 0.1100 |
| Field-Tested | 0.2650 | 0.2650 |
| Well-Worn | 0.4150 | 0.4150 |
| Battle-Scarred | 0.7250 | 0.7250 |
“Not reachable” means AK-47 | Ice Coaled’s own float range never enters that exterior band — no combination of inputs can produce it.
What AK-47 | Ice Coaled is worth right now
Worth comparing against the contract cost above before you commit: buying the skin outright is frequently cheaper than rolling for it.
| Exterior | Price | vs. contract cost |
|---|---|---|
| Battle-Scarred | $391.00 | +$41.00 |
| Field-Tested | $421.00 | +$71.00 |
| Well-Worn | $459.00 | +$109.00 |
| Minimal Wear | $755.00 | +$405.00 |
| Factory New | $1558.00 | +$1208.00 |
Build this contract
Price a full ten-slot contract against live inputs, set your own float values, and see the outcome odds update as you go.