How to Trade Up to XM1014 | Run Run Run
XM1014 | Run Run Run drops from Austin 2025 Train Souvenir Package, Austin 2025 Train Souvenir Highlight Package, Budapest 2025 Train Souvenir Package, Budapest 2025 Train Souvenir Highlight Package, so any contract that can produce it needs 10 Industrial Grade skins from those same cases. Here is what the contract costs, what else it can land on, and the input float you need for each exterior.
- Odds per contract
- 25% 1 in 4
- Contract cost from
- $0.30 10 × cheapest input
- Expected value
- $0.17 mean of the outcome pool
- Margin
- -43.3% $-0.13 per contract
Buying is cheaper than rolling. A Battle-Scarred XM1014 | Run Run Run costs $0.16 outright, against $0.30 for a contract with a 25% chance of producing one. Trade up for the process, not the value.
The contract
10 inputs, all Industrial Grade, all from Austin 2025 Train Souvenir Package or Austin 2025 Train Souvenir Highlight Package or Budapest 2025 Train Souvenir Package or Budapest 2025 Train Souvenir Highlight Package. Concentrating every input in one case is what keeps your odds at 25% — mixing cases splits the probability across both pools and lowers your chance at XM1014 | Run Run Run specifically.
P90 | Straight Dimes
AUG | Steel Sentinel
CZ75-Auto | Copper Fiber
CZ75-Auto | Copper Fiber
Nova | Rain Station
P250 | Constructivist
AUG | Steel Sentinel
P90 | Straight Dimes
AUG | Steel Sentinel
CZ75-Auto | Copper Fiber
Galil AR | Green Apple
P250 | Constructivist12 further eligible inputs are available — open the reverse trade-up calculator to price a full contract against your own inventory.
What else this contract can land on
A contract from Austin 2025 Train Souvenir Package / Austin 2025 Train Souvenir Highlight Package / Budapest 2025 Train Souvenir Package / Budapest 2025 Train Souvenir Highlight Package draws uniformly from every Mil-Spec Grade skin in the pool, so XM1014 | Run Run Run is one of 4 equally likely results. These are the other 3.
| Outcome | Odds | Cheapest price |
|---|---|---|
| Glock-18 | Green Line | 25% | $0.20 |
| UMP-45 | Late Night Transit | 25% | $0.16 |
| XM1014 | Run Run Runyour target | 25% | $0.16 |
| FAMAS | 2A2F | 25% | $0.14 |
Input float for each exterior
CS2 normalises float across a trade-up: each input’s float becomes a 0–1 position inside its own range, those are averaged, and the average is applied to XM1014 | Run Run Run’s range of 0.00–0.75. To land a given exterior, your ten inputs must average the normalised float below.
| Target exterior | Output float | Required avg. input float |
|---|---|---|
| Factory New | 0.0350 | 0.0469 |
| Minimal Wear | 0.1100 | 0.1473 |
| Field-Tested | 0.2650 | 0.3550 |
| Well-Worn | 0.4150 | 0.5559 |
| Battle-Scarred | 0.5983 | 0.8014 |
“Not reachable” means XM1014 | Run Run Run’s own float range never enters that exterior band — no combination of inputs can produce it.
What XM1014 | Run Run Run is worth right now
Worth comparing against the contract cost above before you commit: buying the skin outright is frequently cheaper than rolling for it.
| Exterior | Price | vs. contract cost |
|---|---|---|
| Battle-Scarred | $0.16 | −$0.14 |
| Field-Tested | $0.17 | −$0.13 |
| Well-Worn | $0.17 | −$0.13 |
| Minimal Wear | $0.50 | +$0.20 |
| Factory New | $2.05 | +$1.75 |
Build this contract
Price a full ten-slot contract against live inputs, set your own float values, and see the outcome odds update as you go.