How to Trade Up to XM1014 | Incinegator
XM1014 | Incinegator drops from Prisma CasePrisma Case, Prisma Case, Prisma Case, Prisma Case, Prisma Case, Prisma Case, Prisma Case, Prisma Case, Prisma Case, Prisma Case, Prisma Case, Prisma Case, Prisma Case, Prisma Case, so any contract that can produce it needs 10 Restricted skins from those same cases. Here is what the contract costs, what else it can land on, and the input float you need for each exterior.
- Odds per contract
- 33.33% 1 in 3
- Contract cost from
- $540.00 10× cheapest input
- Expected value
- $567.33 mean of the outcome pool
- Margin
- +5.1% +$27.33 per contract
This contract is EV-positive at floor prices. Ten cheapest inputs cost $540.00 against an outcome pool averaging $567.33 — $27.33 per contract. Individual rolls still vary; XM1014 | Incinegator itself is only 33.33% of them.
The contract
Ten inputs, all Restricted, all from Prisma CasePrisma Case or Prisma Case or Prisma Case or Prisma Case or Prisma Case or Prisma Case or Prisma Case or Prisma Case or Prisma Case or Prisma Case or Prisma Case or Prisma Case or Prisma Case or Prisma Case. Concentrating every input in one case is what keeps your odds at 33.33% — mixing cases splits the probability across both pools and lowers your chance at XM1014 | Incinegator specifically.
MP5-SD | Gauss
MP5-SD | Gauss
Tec-9 | Bamboozle
MP5-SD | Gauss
UMP-45 | Moonrise
Tec-9 | Bamboozle
Tec-9 | Bamboozle
UMP-45 | Moonrise
UMP-45 | Moonrise
Desert Eagle | Light Rail
Desert Eagle | Light Rail
Desert Eagle | Light Rail12 further eligible inputs are available — open the reverse trade-up calculator to price a full contract against your own inventory.
What else this contract can land on
A contract from Prisma CasePrisma Case / Prisma Case / Prisma Case / Prisma Case / Prisma Case / Prisma Case / Prisma Case / Prisma Case / Prisma Case / Prisma Case / Prisma Case / Prisma Case / Prisma Case / Prisma Case draws uniformly from every Classified Shotgun skin in the pool, so XM1014 | Incinegator is one of 3 equally likely results. These are the other 2.
| Outcome | Odds | Cheapest price |
|---|---|---|
| R8 Revolver | Skull Crusher | 33.33% | $586.00 |
| XM1014 | Incinegatoryour target | 33.33% | $575.00 |
| AUG | Momentum | 33.33% | $541.00 |
Input float for each exterior
CS2 normalises float across a trade-up: each input’s float becomes a 0–1 position inside its own range, those are averaged, and the average is applied to XM1014 | Incinegator’s range of 0.14–0.65. To land a given exterior, your ten inputs must average the normalised float below.
| Target exterior | Output float | Required avg. input float |
|---|---|---|
| Factory New | — | not reachable |
| Minimal Wear | 0.1450 | 0.0098 |
| Field-Tested | 0.2650 | 0.2451 |
| Well-Worn | 0.4150 | 0.5392 |
| Battle-Scarred | 0.5500 | 0.8039 |
“Not reachable” means XM1014 | Incinegator’s own float range never enters that exterior band — no combination of inputs can produce it.
What XM1014 | Incinegator is worth right now
Worth comparing against the contract cost above before you commit: buying the skin outright is frequently cheaper than rolling for it.
| Exterior | Price | vs. contract cost |
|---|---|---|
| Battle-Scarred | $575.00 | +$35.00 |
| Field-Tested | $617.00 | +$77.00 |
| Well-Worn | $622.00 | +$82.00 |
| Minimal Wear | $4077.00 | +$3537.00 |
Build this contract
Price a full ten-slot contract against live inputs, set your own float values, and see the outcome odds update as you go.