How to Trade Up to XM1014 | Elegant Vines
XM1014 | Elegant Vines drops from Stockholm 2021 Mirage Souvenir Package, Antwerp 2022 Mirage Souvenir Package, Rio 2022 Mirage Souvenir Package, Paris 2023 Mirage Souvenir Package, Copenhagen 2024 Mirage Souvenir Package, so any contract that can produce it needs 10 Mil-Spec skins from those same cases. Here is what the contract costs, what else it can land on, and the input float you need for each exterior.
- Odds per contract
- 33.33% 1 in 3
- Contract cost from
- $2490.00 10× cheapest input
- Expected value
- $2058.00 mean of the outcome pool
- Margin
- -17.3% $-432.00 per contract
Buying is cheaper than rolling. A Field-Tested XM1014 | Elegant Vines costs $2041.00 outright, against $2490.00 for a contract with a 33.33% chance of producing one. Trade up for the process, not the value.
The contract
Ten inputs, all Mil-Spec, all from Stockholm 2021 Mirage Souvenir Package or Antwerp 2022 Mirage Souvenir Package or Rio 2022 Mirage Souvenir Package or Paris 2023 Mirage Souvenir Package or Copenhagen 2024 Mirage Souvenir Package. Concentrating every input in one case is what keeps your odds at 33.33% — mixing cases splits the probability across both pools and lowers your chance at XM1014 | Elegant Vines specifically.
SG 553 | Desert Blossom
M249 | Humidor
M249 | Humidor
MP9 | Music Box
USP-S | Purple DDPAT
SG 553 | Desert Blossom
M249 | Humidor
MP9 | Music Box
SG 553 | Desert Blossom
USP-S | Purple DDPAT
M249 | Humidor
M249 | Humidor8 further eligible inputs are available — open the reverse trade-up calculator to price a full contract against your own inventory.
What else this contract can land on
A contract from Stockholm 2021 Mirage Souvenir Package / Antwerp 2022 Mirage Souvenir Package / Rio 2022 Mirage Souvenir Package / Paris 2023 Mirage Souvenir Package / Copenhagen 2024 Mirage Souvenir Package draws uniformly from every Restricted Shotgun skin in the pool, so XM1014 | Elegant Vines is one of 3 equally likely results. These are the other 2.
| Outcome | Odds | Cheapest price |
|---|---|---|
| Glock-18 | Pink DDPAT | 33.33% | $2130.00 |
| XM1014 | Elegant Vinesyour target | 33.33% | $2041.00 |
| AUG | Sand Storm | 33.33% | $2003.00 |
Input float for each exterior
CS2 normalises float across a trade-up: each input’s float becomes a 0–1 position inside its own range, those are averaged, and the average is applied to XM1014 | Elegant Vines’s range of 0.00–0.37. To land a given exterior, your ten inputs must average the normalised float below.
| Target exterior | Output float | Required avg. input float |
|---|---|---|
| Factory New | 0.0350 | 0.0946 |
| Minimal Wear | 0.1100 | 0.2973 |
| Field-Tested | 0.2600 | 0.7027 |
| Well-Worn | — | not reachable |
| Battle-Scarred | — | not reachable |
“Not reachable” means XM1014 | Elegant Vines’s own float range never enters that exterior band — no combination of inputs can produce it.
What XM1014 | Elegant Vines is worth right now
Worth comparing against the contract cost above before you commit: buying the skin outright is frequently cheaper than rolling for it.
| Exterior | Price | vs. contract cost |
|---|---|---|
| Field-Tested | $2041.00 | −$449.00 |
| Minimal Wear | $2233.00 | −$257.00 |
| Factory New | $3506.00 | +$1016.00 |
Build this contract
Price a full ten-slot contract against live inputs, set your own float values, and see the outcome odds update as you go.