How to Trade Up to USP-S | Kill Confirmed
USP-S | Kill Confirmed drops from Shadow CaseShadow Case, Shadow Case, Shadow Case, Shadow Case, Shadow Case, Shadow Case, Shadow Case, Shadow Case, Shadow Case, Shadow Case, Shadow Case, Shadow Case, Shadow Case, so any contract that can produce it needs 10 Classified skins from those same cases. Here is what the contract costs, what else it can land on, and the input float you need for each exterior.
- Odds per contract
- 50% 1 in 2
- Contract cost from
- $5860.00 10× cheapest input
- Expected value
- $5191.50 mean of the outcome pool
- Margin
- -11.4% $-668.50 per contract
Buying is cheaper than rolling. A Battle-Scarred USP-S | Kill Confirmed costs $5537.00 outright, against $5860.00 for a contract with a 50% chance of producing one. Trade up for the process, not the value.
The contract
Ten inputs, all Classified, all from Shadow CaseShadow Case or Shadow Case or Shadow Case or Shadow Case or Shadow Case or Shadow Case or Shadow Case or Shadow Case or Shadow Case or Shadow Case or Shadow Case or Shadow Case or Shadow Case. Concentrating every input in one case is what keeps your odds at 50% — mixing cases splits the probability across both pools and lowers your chance at USP-S | Kill Confirmed specifically.
G3SG1 | Flux
G3SG1 | Flux
G3SG1 | Flux
SSG 08 | Big Iron
SSG 08 | Big Iron
SSG 08 | Big Iron
G3SG1 | Flux
SSG 08 | Big Iron
AK-47 | Frontside Misty
AK-47 | Frontside Misty
AK-47 | Frontside Misty
AK-47 | Frontside Misty3 further eligible inputs are available — open the reverse trade-up calculator to price a full contract against your own inventory.
What else this contract can land on
A contract from Shadow CaseShadow Case / Shadow Case / Shadow Case / Shadow Case / Shadow Case / Shadow Case / Shadow Case / Shadow Case / Shadow Case / Shadow Case / Shadow Case / Shadow Case / Shadow Case draws uniformly from every Covert Pistol skin in the pool, so USP-S | Kill Confirmed is one of 2 equally likely results. These are the other 1.
| Outcome | Odds | Cheapest price |
|---|---|---|
| USP-S | Kill Confirmedyour target | 50% | $5537.00 |
| M4A1-S | Golden Coil | 50% | $4846.00 |
Input float for each exterior
CS2 normalises float across a trade-up: each input’s float becomes a 0–1 position inside its own range, those are averaged, and the average is applied to USP-S | Kill Confirmed’s range of 0.00–1.00. To land a given exterior, your ten inputs must average the normalised float below.
| Target exterior | Output float | Required avg. input float |
|---|---|---|
| Factory New | 0.0350 | 0.0350 |
| Minimal Wear | 0.1100 | 0.1100 |
| Field-Tested | 0.2650 | 0.2650 |
| Well-Worn | 0.4150 | 0.4150 |
| Battle-Scarred | 0.7250 | 0.7250 |
“Not reachable” means USP-S | Kill Confirmed’s own float range never enters that exterior band — no combination of inputs can produce it.
What USP-S | Kill Confirmed is worth right now
Worth comparing against the contract cost above before you commit: buying the skin outright is frequently cheaper than rolling for it.
| Exterior | Price | vs. contract cost |
|---|---|---|
| Battle-Scarred | $5537.00 | −$323.00 |
| Well-Worn | $5727.00 | −$133.00 |
| Field-Tested | $6777.00 | +$917.00 |
| Minimal Wear | $10327.00 | +$4467.00 |
| Factory New | $26059.00 | +$20199.00 |
Build this contract
Price a full ten-slot contract against live inputs, set your own float values, and see the outcome odds update as you go.