How to Trade Up to UMP-45 | Wild Child
UMP-45 | Wild Child drops from Revolution CaseRevolution Case, Revolution Case, Revolution Case, Revolution Case, Revolution Case, Revolution Case, Revolution Case, Revolution Case, Revolution Case, Revolution Case, Revolution Case, Revolution Case, Revolution Case, Revolution Case, Revolution Case, Revolution Case, so any contract that can produce it needs 10 Restricted skins from those same cases. Here is what the contract costs, what else it can land on, and the input float you need for each exterior.
- Odds per contract
- 33.33% 1 in 3
- Contract cost from
- $340.00 10× cheapest input
- Expected value
- $285.67 mean of the outcome pool
- Margin
- -16% $-54.33 per contract
Buying is cheaper than rolling. A Battle-Scarred UMP-45 | Wild Child costs $282.00 outright, against $340.00 for a contract with a 33.33% chance of producing one. Trade up for the process, not the value.
The contract
Ten inputs, all Restricted, all from Revolution CaseRevolution Case or Revolution Case or Revolution Case or Revolution Case or Revolution Case or Revolution Case or Revolution Case or Revolution Case or Revolution Case or Revolution Case or Revolution Case or Revolution Case or Revolution Case or Revolution Case or Revolution Case or Revolution Case. Concentrating every input in one case is what keeps your odds at 33.33% — mixing cases splits the probability across both pools and lowers your chance at UMP-45 | Wild Child specifically.
R8 Revolver | Banana Cannon
MAC-10 | Sakkaku
P90 | Neoqueen
P90 | Neoqueen
R8 Revolver | Banana Cannon
Glock-18 | Umbral Rabbit
P90 | Neoqueen
MAC-10 | Sakkaku
R8 Revolver | Banana Cannon
Glock-18 | Umbral Rabbit
Glock-18 | Umbral Rabbit
M4A1-S | Emphorosaur-S11 further eligible inputs are available — open the reverse trade-up calculator to price a full contract against your own inventory.
What else this contract can land on
A contract from Revolution CaseRevolution Case / Revolution Case / Revolution Case / Revolution Case / Revolution Case / Revolution Case / Revolution Case / Revolution Case / Revolution Case / Revolution Case / Revolution Case / Revolution Case / Revolution Case / Revolution Case / Revolution Case / Revolution Case draws uniformly from every Classified SMG skin in the pool, so UMP-45 | Wild Child is one of 3 equally likely results. These are the other 2.
| Outcome | Odds | Cheapest price |
|---|---|---|
| AWP | Duality | 33.33% | $294.00 |
| UMP-45 | Wild Childyour target | 33.33% | $282.00 |
| P2000 | Wicked Sick | 33.33% | $281.00 |
Input float for each exterior
CS2 normalises float across a trade-up: each input’s float becomes a 0–1 position inside its own range, those are averaged, and the average is applied to UMP-45 | Wild Child’s range of 0.00–1.00. To land a given exterior, your ten inputs must average the normalised float below.
| Target exterior | Output float | Required avg. input float |
|---|---|---|
| Factory New | 0.0350 | 0.0350 |
| Minimal Wear | 0.1100 | 0.1100 |
| Field-Tested | 0.2650 | 0.2650 |
| Well-Worn | 0.4150 | 0.4150 |
| Battle-Scarred | 0.7250 | 0.7250 |
“Not reachable” means UMP-45 | Wild Child’s own float range never enters that exterior band — no combination of inputs can produce it.
What UMP-45 | Wild Child is worth right now
Worth comparing against the contract cost above before you commit: buying the skin outright is frequently cheaper than rolling for it.
| Exterior | Price | vs. contract cost |
|---|---|---|
| Battle-Scarred | $282.00 | −$58.00 |
| Well-Worn | $317.00 | −$23.00 |
| Field-Tested | $352.00 | +$12.00 |
| Minimal Wear | $554.00 | +$214.00 |
| Factory New | $1586.00 | +$1246.00 |
Build this contract
Price a full ten-slot contract against live inputs, set your own float values, and see the outcome odds update as you go.