How to Trade Up to UMP-45 | Scaffold
UMP-45 | Scaffold drops from Spectrum Case, so any contract that can produce it needs 10 Mil-Spec skins from that same case. Here is what the contract costs, what else it can land on, and the input float you need for each exterior.
- Odds per contract
- 20% 1 in 5
- Contract cost from
- $2.40 10× cheapest input
- Expected value
- $1.34 mean of the outcome pool
- Margin
- -44.2% $-1.06 per contract
Buying is cheaper than rolling. A Well-Worn UMP-45 | Scaffold costs $1.24 outright, against $2.40 for a contract with a 20% chance of producing one. Trade up for the process, not the value.
The contract
10 inputs, all Mil-Spec, all from Spectrum Case. Concentrating every input in one case is what keeps your odds at 20% — mixing cases splits the probability across both pools and lowers your chance at UMP-45 | Scaffold specifically.
Sawed-Off | Zander
SCAR-20 | Blueprint
Sawed-Off | Zander
PP-Bizon | Jungle Slipstream
Five-SeveN | Capillary
Five-SeveN | Capillary
SCAR-20 | Blueprint
Sawed-Off | Zander
PP-Bizon | Jungle Slipstream
PP-Bizon | Jungle Slipstream
SCAR-20 | Blueprint
PP-Bizon | Jungle Slipstream12 further eligible inputs are available — open the reverse trade-up calculator to price a full contract against your own inventory.
What else this contract can land on
A contract from Spectrum Case draws uniformly from every Restricted SMG skin in the pool, so UMP-45 | Scaffold is one of 5 equally likely results. These are the other 4.
| Outcome | Odds | Cheapest price |
|---|---|---|
| Galil AR | Crimson Tsunami | 20% | $1.70 |
| M249 | Emerald Poison Dart | 20% | $1.26 |
| XM1014 | Seasons | 20% | $1.24 |
| MAC-10 | Last Dive | 20% | $1.24 |
| UMP-45 | Scaffoldyour target | 20% | $1.24 |
Input float for each exterior
CS2 normalises float across a trade-up: each input’s float becomes a 0–1 position inside its own range, those are averaged, and the average is applied to UMP-45 | Scaffold’s range of 0.00–1.00. To land a given exterior, your ten inputs must average the normalised float below.
| Target exterior | Output float | Required avg. input float |
|---|---|---|
| Factory New | 0.0350 | 0.0350 |
| Minimal Wear | 0.1100 | 0.1100 |
| Field-Tested | 0.2650 | 0.2650 |
| Well-Worn | 0.4150 | 0.4150 |
| Battle-Scarred | 0.7250 | 0.7250 |
“Not reachable” means UMP-45 | Scaffold’s own float range never enters that exterior band — no combination of inputs can produce it.
What UMP-45 | Scaffold is worth right now
Worth comparing against the contract cost above before you commit: buying the skin outright is frequently cheaper than rolling for it.
| Exterior | Price | vs. contract cost |
|---|---|---|
| Well-Worn | $1.24 | −$1.16 |
| Battle-Scarred | $1.27 | −$1.13 |
| Field-Tested | $1.27 | −$1.13 |
| Minimal Wear | $2.13 | −$0.27 |
| Factory New | $5.41 | +$3.01 |
Build this contract
Price a full ten-slot contract against live inputs, set your own float values, and see the outcome odds update as you go.