How to Trade Up to UMP-45 | Exposure
UMP-45 | Exposure drops from Spectrum 2 Case, so any contract that can produce it needs 10 Mil-Spec skins from that same case. Here is what the contract costs, what else it can land on, and the input float you need for each exterior.
- Odds per contract
- 20% 1 in 5
- Contract cost from
- $1.50 10× cheapest input
- Expected value
- $1.08 mean of the outcome pool
- Margin
- -28% $-0.42 per contract
Buying is cheaper than rolling. A Field-Tested UMP-45 | Exposure costs $1.09 outright, against $1.50 for a contract with a 20% chance of producing one. Trade up for the process, not the value.
The contract
10 inputs, all Mil-Spec, all from Spectrum 2 Case. Concentrating every input in one case is what keeps your odds at 20% — mixing cases splits the probability across both pools and lowers your chance at UMP-45 | Exposure specifically.
G3SG1 | Hunter
Sawed-Off | Morris
G3SG1 | Hunter
Tec-9 | Cracked Opal
AUG | Triqua
Tec-9 | Cracked Opal
Sawed-Off | Morris
AUG | Triqua
Glock-18 | Off World
Glock-18 | Off World
MAC-10 | Oceanic
SCAR-20 | Jungle Slipstream12 further eligible inputs are available — open the reverse trade-up calculator to price a full contract against your own inventory.
What else this contract can land on
A contract from Spectrum 2 Case draws uniformly from every Restricted SMG skin in the pool, so UMP-45 | Exposure is one of 5 equally likely results. These are the other 4.
| Outcome | Odds | Cheapest price |
|---|---|---|
| XM1014 | Ziggy | 20% | $1.10 |
| UMP-45 | Exposureyour target | 20% | $1.09 |
| CZ75-Auto | Tacticat | 20% | $1.08 |
| SG 553 | Phantom | 20% | $1.08 |
| MP9 | Goo | 20% | $1.07 |
Input float for each exterior
CS2 normalises float across a trade-up: each input’s float becomes a 0–1 position inside its own range, those are averaged, and the average is applied to UMP-45 | Exposure’s range of 0.00–0.55. To land a given exterior, your ten inputs must average the normalised float below.
| Target exterior | Output float | Required avg. input float |
|---|---|---|
| Factory New | 0.0350 | 0.0636 |
| Minimal Wear | 0.1100 | 0.2000 |
| Field-Tested | 0.2650 | 0.4818 |
| Well-Worn | 0.4150 | 0.7545 |
| Battle-Scarred | 0.5000 | 0.9091 |
“Not reachable” means UMP-45 | Exposure’s own float range never enters that exterior band — no combination of inputs can produce it.
What UMP-45 | Exposure is worth right now
Worth comparing against the contract cost above before you commit: buying the skin outright is frequently cheaper than rolling for it.
| Exterior | Price | vs. contract cost |
|---|---|---|
| Field-Tested | $1.09 | −$0.41 |
| Well-Worn | $1.18 | −$0.32 |
| Battle-Scarred | $1.18 | −$0.32 |
| Minimal Wear | $1.23 | −$0.27 |
| Factory New | $3.00 | +$1.50 |
Build this contract
Price a full ten-slot contract against live inputs, set your own float values, and see the outcome odds update as you go.