How to Trade Up to UMP-45 | Blaze
UMP-45 | Blaze drops from DreamHack 2013 Souvenir Package, EMS One 2014 Souvenir Package, ESL One Cologne 2014 Mirage Souvenir Package, DreamHack 2014 Mirage Souvenir Package, ESL One Katowice 2015 Mirage Souvenir Package, ESL One Cologne 2015 Mirage Souvenir Package, DreamHack Cluj-Napoca 2015 Mirage Souvenir Package, MLG Columbus 2016 Mirage Souvenir Package, Cologne 2016 Mirage Souvenir Package, Atlanta 2017 Mirage Souvenir Package, Krakow 2017 Mirage Souvenir Package, Boston 2018 Mirage Souvenir Package, London 2018 Mirage Souve, so any contract that can produce it needs 10 Industrial Grade skins from those same cases. Here is what the contract costs, what else it can land on, and the input float you need for each exterior.
- Odds per contract
- 5.88% 1 in 17
- Contract cost from
- $30.00 10× cheapest input
- Expected value
- $1437.76 mean of the outcome pool
- Margin
- +4692.5% +$1407.76 per contract
This contract is EV-positive at floor prices. Ten cheapest inputs cost $30.00 against an outcome pool averaging $1437.76 — $1407.76 per contract. Individual rolls still vary; UMP-45 | Blaze itself is only 5.88% of them.
The contract
Ten inputs, all Industrial Grade, all from DreamHack 2013 Souvenir Package or EMS One 2014 Souvenir Package or ESL One Cologne 2014 Mirage Souvenir Package or DreamHack 2014 Mirage Souvenir Package or ESL One Katowice 2015 Mirage Souvenir Package or ESL One Cologne 2015 Mirage Souvenir Package or DreamHack Cluj-Napoca 2015 Mirage Souvenir Package or MLG Columbus 2016 Mirage Souvenir Package or Cologne 2016 Mirage Souvenir Package or Atlanta 2017 Mirage Souvenir Package or Krakow 2017 Mirage Souvenir Package or Boston 2018 Mirage Souvenir Package or London 2018 Mirage Souve. Concentrating every input in one case is what keeps your odds at 5.88% — mixing cases splits the probability across both pools and lowers your chance at UMP-45 | Blaze specifically.
Sawed-Off | Snake Camo
Tec-9 | VariCamo
MAC-10 | Palm
PP-Bizon | Night Ops
Five-SeveN | Orange Peel
MAC-10 | Palm
Tec-9 | VariCamo
AUG | Condemned
XM1014 | Blue Steel
Sawed-Off | Snake Camo
AUG | Condemned
Tec-9 | VariCamo12 further eligible inputs are available — open the reverse trade-up calculator to price a full contract against your own inventory.
What else this contract can land on
A contract from DreamHack 2013 Souvenir Package / EMS One 2014 Souvenir Package / ESL One Cologne 2014 Mirage Souvenir Package / DreamHack 2014 Mirage Souvenir Package / ESL One Katowice 2015 Mirage Souvenir Package / ESL One Cologne 2015 Mirage Souvenir Package / DreamHack Cluj-Napoca 2015 Mirage Souvenir Package / MLG Columbus 2016 Mirage Souvenir Package / Cologne 2016 Mirage Souvenir Package / Atlanta 2017 Mirage Souvenir Package / Krakow 2017 Mirage Souvenir Package / Boston 2018 Mirage Souvenir Package / London 2018 Mirage Souve draws uniformly from every Mil-Spec Grade SMG skin in the pool, so UMP-45 | Blaze is one of 17 equally likely results. These are the other 16.
| Outcome | Odds | Cheapest price |
|---|---|---|
| MP9 | Hot Rod | 5.88% | $20197.00 |
| UMP-45 | Blazeyour target | 5.88% | $2138.00 |
| MAC-10 | Amber Fade | 5.88% | $1588.00 |
| MP7 | Anodized Navy | 5.88% | $114.00 |
| Glock-18 | Candy Apple | 5.88% | $113.00 |
| SSG 08 | Acid Fade | 5.88% | $82.00 |
| SG 553 | Anodized Navy | 5.88% | $55.00 |
| M4A1-S | VariCamo | 5.88% | $22.00 |
| Desert Eagle | Urban Rubble | 5.88% | $19.00 |
| Sawed-Off | Amber Fade | 5.88% | $18.00 |
| USP-S | Night Ops | 5.88% | $17.00 |
| FAMAS | Teardown | 5.88% | $17.00 |
| P90 | Teardown | 5.88% | $14.00 |
| Sawed-Off | Full Stop | 5.88% | $14.00 |
| Five-SeveN | Silver Quartz | 5.88% | $13.00 |
| PP-Bizon | Brass | 5.88% | $11.00 |
| SG 553 | Damascus Steel | 5.88% | $10.00 |
Input float for each exterior
CS2 normalises float across a trade-up: each input’s float becomes a 0–1 position inside its own range, those are averaged, and the average is applied to UMP-45 | Blaze’s range of 0.00–0.08. To land a given exterior, your ten inputs must average the normalised float below.
| Target exterior | Output float | Required avg. input float |
|---|---|---|
| Factory New | 0.0350 | 0.4375 |
| Minimal Wear | 0.0750 | 0.9375 |
| Field-Tested | — | not reachable |
| Well-Worn | — | not reachable |
| Battle-Scarred | — | not reachable |
“Not reachable” means UMP-45 | Blaze’s own float range never enters that exterior band — no combination of inputs can produce it.
What UMP-45 | Blaze is worth right now
Worth comparing against the contract cost above before you commit: buying the skin outright is frequently cheaper than rolling for it.
| Exterior | Price | vs. contract cost |
|---|---|---|
| Factory New | $2138.00 | +$2108.00 |
| Minimal Wear | $5204.00 | +$5174.00 |
Build this contract
Price a full ten-slot contract against live inputs, set your own float values, and see the outcome odds update as you go.