How to Trade Up to Nova | Rising Skull
Nova | Rising Skull drops from Winter Offensive Weapon Case, so any contract that can produce it needs 10 Mil-Spec skins from that same case. Here is what the contract costs, what else it can land on, and the input float you need for each exterior.
- Odds per contract
- 25% 1 in 4
- Contract cost from
- $11.50 10 × cheapest input
- Expected value
- $5.76 mean of the outcome pool
- Margin
- -49.9% $-5.74 per contract
Buying is cheaper than rolling. A Field-Tested Nova | Rising Skull costs $4.65 outright, against $11.50 for a contract with a 25% chance of producing one. Trade up for the process, not the value.
The contract
10 inputs, all Mil-Spec, all from Winter Offensive Weapon Case. Concentrating every input in one case is what keeps your odds at 25% — mixing cases splits the probability across both pools and lowers your chance at Nova | Rising Skull specifically.
PP-Bizon | Cobalt Halftone
M249 | Magma
PP-Bizon | Cobalt Halftone
PP-Bizon | Cobalt Halftone
M249 | Magma
Galil AR | Sandstorm
M249 | Magma
Galil AR | Sandstorm
M249 | Magma
Galil AR | Sandstorm
Five-SeveN | Kami
Five-SeveN | Kami4 further eligible inputs are available — open the reverse trade-up finder to price a full contract against your own inventory.
What else this contract can land on
A contract from Winter Offensive Weapon Case draws uniformly from every Restricted Shotgun skin in the pool, so Nova | Rising Skull is one of 4 equally likely results. These are the other 3.
| Outcome | Odds | Cheapest price |
|---|---|---|
| FAMAS | Pulse | 25% | $7.84 |
| MP9 | Rose Iron | 25% | $6.14 |
| Nova | Rising Skullyour target | 25% | $4.65 |
| Dual Berettas | Marina | 25% | $4.42 |
Input float for each exterior
CS2 normalises float across a trade-up: each input’s float becomes a 0–1 position inside its own range, those are averaged, and the average is applied to Nova | Rising Skull’s range of 0.00–0.50. To land a given exterior, your ten inputs must average the normalised float below.
| Target exterior | Output float | Required avg. input float |
|---|---|---|
| Factory New | 0.0350 | 0.0700 |
| Minimal Wear | 0.1100 | 0.2200 |
| Field-Tested | 0.2650 | 0.5300 |
| Well-Worn | 0.4150 | 0.8300 |
| Battle-Scarred | 0.4750 | 0.9500 |
“Not reachable” means Nova | Rising Skull’s own float range never enters that exterior band — no combination of inputs can produce it.
What Nova | Rising Skull is worth right now
Worth comparing against the contract cost above before you commit: buying the skin outright is frequently cheaper than rolling for it.
| Exterior | Price | vs. contract cost |
|---|---|---|
| Field-Tested | $4.65 | −$6.85 |
| Minimal Wear | $5.10 | −$6.40 |
| Battle-Scarred | $6.07 | −$5.43 |
| Well-Worn | $6.69 | −$4.81 |
| Factory New | $6.92 | −$4.58 |
Build this contract
Price a full ten-slot contract against live inputs, set your own float values, and see the outcome odds update as you go.