How to Trade Up to M4A1-S | Night Terror
M4A1-S | Night Terror drops from Dreams & Nightmares Case, so any contract that can produce it needs 10 Mil-Spec skins from that same case. Here is what the contract costs, what else it can land on, and the input float you need for each exterior.
- Odds per contract
- 20% 1 in 5
- Contract cost from
- $0.70 10 × cheapest input
- Expected value
- $0.62 mean of the outcome pool
- Margin
- -11.4% $-0.08 per contract
Buying is cheaper than rolling. A Field-Tested M4A1-S | Night Terror costs $0.67 outright, against $0.70 for a contract with a 20% chance of producing one. Trade up for the process, not the value.
The contract
10 inputs, all Mil-Spec, all from Dreams & Nightmares Case. Concentrating every input in one case is what keeps your odds at 20% — mixing cases splits the probability across both pools and lowers your chance at M4A1-S | Night Terror specifically.
MAG-7 | Foresight
MP5-SD | Necro Jr.
P2000 | Lifted Spirits
MP5-SD | Necro Jr.
Five-SeveN | Scrawl
Sawed-Off | Spirit Board
MAC-10 | Ensnared
P2000 | Lifted Spirits
MAG-7 | Foresight
Sawed-Off | Spirit Board
SCAR-20 | Poultrygeist
Sawed-Off | Spirit Board12 further eligible inputs are available — open the reverse trade-up calculator to price a full contract against your own inventory.
What else this contract can land on
A contract from Dreams & Nightmares Case draws uniformly from every Restricted Rifle skin in the pool, so M4A1-S | Night Terror is one of 5 equally likely results. These are the other 4.
| Outcome | Odds | Cheapest price |
|---|---|---|
| M4A1-S | Night Terroryour target | 20% | $0.67 |
| XM1014 | Zombie Offensive | 20% | $0.62 |
| G3SG1 | Dream Glade | 20% | $0.61 |
| USP-S | Ticket to Hell | 20% | $0.61 |
| PP-Bizon | Space Cat | 20% | $0.60 |
Input float for each exterior
CS2 normalises float across a trade-up: each input’s float becomes a 0–1 position inside its own range, those are averaged, and the average is applied to M4A1-S | Night Terror’s range of 0.00–0.70. To land a given exterior, your ten inputs must average the normalised float below.
| Target exterior | Output float | Required avg. input float |
|---|---|---|
| Factory New | 0.0350 | 0.0500 |
| Minimal Wear | 0.1100 | 0.1571 |
| Field-Tested | 0.2650 | 0.3786 |
| Well-Worn | 0.4150 | 0.5929 |
| Battle-Scarred | 0.5750 | 0.8214 |
“Not reachable” means M4A1-S | Night Terror’s own float range never enters that exterior band — no combination of inputs can produce it.
What M4A1-S | Night Terror is worth right now
Worth comparing against the contract cost above before you commit: buying the skin outright is frequently cheaper than rolling for it.
| Exterior | Price | vs. contract cost |
|---|---|---|
| Field-Tested | $0.67 | −$0.03 |
| Battle-Scarred | $0.73 | +$0.03 |
| Well-Worn | $0.73 | +$0.03 |
| Minimal Wear | $0.88 | +$0.18 |
| Factory New | $2.06 | +$1.36 |
Build this contract
Price a full ten-slot contract against live inputs, set your own float values, and see the outcome odds update as you go.