How to Trade Up to M4A1-S | Flashback
M4A1-S | Flashback drops from Glove CaseGlove Case, Glove Case, Glove Case, Glove Case, Glove Case, Glove Case, Glove Case, Glove Case, Glove Case, Glove Case, Glove Case, Glove Case, Glove Case, Glove Case, so any contract that can produce it needs 10 Mil-Spec skins from those same cases. Here is what the contract costs, what else it can land on, and the input float you need for each exterior.
- Odds per contract
- 20% 1 in 5
- Contract cost from
- $420.00 10× cheapest input
- Expected value
- $322.60 mean of the outcome pool
- Margin
- -23.2% $-97.40 per contract
Buying is cheaper than rolling. A Battle-Scarred M4A1-S | Flashback costs $303.00 outright, against $420.00 for a contract with a 20% chance of producing one. Trade up for the process, not the value.
The contract
Ten inputs, all Mil-Spec, all from Glove CaseGlove Case or Glove Case or Glove Case or Glove Case or Glove Case or Glove Case or Glove Case or Glove Case or Glove Case or Glove Case or Glove Case or Glove Case or Glove Case or Glove Case. Concentrating every input in one case is what keeps your odds at 20% — mixing cases splits the probability across both pools and lowers your chance at M4A1-S | Flashback specifically.
Galil AR | Black Sand
P2000 | Turf
Galil AR | Black Sand
MP9 | Sand Scale
P2000 | Turf
CZ75-Auto | Polymer
Glock-18 | Ironwork
MAG-7 | Sonar
CZ75-Auto | Polymer
Glock-18 | Ironwork
MAG-7 | Sonar
CZ75-Auto | Polymer12 further eligible inputs are available — open the reverse trade-up calculator to price a full contract against your own inventory.
What else this contract can land on
A contract from Glove CaseGlove Case / Glove Case / Glove Case / Glove Case / Glove Case / Glove Case / Glove Case / Glove Case / Glove Case / Glove Case / Glove Case / Glove Case / Glove Case / Glove Case draws uniformly from every Restricted Rifle skin in the pool, so M4A1-S | Flashback is one of 5 equally likely results. These are the other 4.
| Outcome | Odds | Cheapest price |
|---|---|---|
| Nova | Gila | 20% | $355.00 |
| USP-S | Cyrex | 20% | $335.00 |
| G3SG1 | Stinger | 20% | $318.00 |
| M4A1-S | Flashbackyour target | 20% | $303.00 |
| Dual Berettas | Royal Consorts | 20% | $302.00 |
Input float for each exterior
CS2 normalises float across a trade-up: each input’s float becomes a 0–1 position inside its own range, those are averaged, and the average is applied to M4A1-S | Flashback’s range of 0.00–1.00. To land a given exterior, your ten inputs must average the normalised float below.
| Target exterior | Output float | Required avg. input float |
|---|---|---|
| Factory New | 0.0350 | 0.0350 |
| Minimal Wear | 0.1100 | 0.1100 |
| Field-Tested | 0.2650 | 0.2650 |
| Well-Worn | 0.4150 | 0.4150 |
| Battle-Scarred | 0.7250 | 0.7250 |
“Not reachable” means M4A1-S | Flashback’s own float range never enters that exterior band — no combination of inputs can produce it.
What M4A1-S | Flashback is worth right now
Worth comparing against the contract cost above before you commit: buying the skin outright is frequently cheaper than rolling for it.
| Exterior | Price | vs. contract cost |
|---|---|---|
| Battle-Scarred | $303.00 | −$117.00 |
| Well-Worn | $326.00 | −$94.00 |
| Field-Tested | $382.00 | −$38.00 |
| Minimal Wear | $1064.00 | +$644.00 |
| Factory New | $14284.00 | +$13864.00 |
Build this contract
Price a full ten-slot contract against live inputs, set your own float values, and see the outcome odds update as you go.