How to Trade Up to M4A1-S | Electrum
M4A1-S | Electrum drops from Sealed Dead Hand Terminal, so any contract that can produce it needs 10 Mil-Spec skins from that same case. Here is what the contract costs, what else it can land on, and the input float you need for each exterior.
- Odds per contract
- 20% 1 in 5
- Contract cost from
- $0.60 10× cheapest input
- Expected value
- $0.59 mean of the outcome pool
- Margin
- -1.7% $-0.01 per contract
This contract is EV-negative. The cheapest ten inputs cost $0.60 and the outcome pool averages $0.59, so it loses $0.01 per contract on average even before you account for hitting the wrong skin.
The contract
10 inputs, all Mil-Spec, all from Sealed Dead Hand Terminal. Concentrating every input in one case is what keeps your odds at 20% — mixing cases splits the probability across both pools and lowers your chance at M4A1-S | Electrum specifically.
Sawed-Off | Fusion
Sawed-Off | Fusion
UMP-45 | Fragment
M249 | Bock Blocks
M4A4 | Zubastick
PP-Bizon | RMX
Five-SeveN | Dark Polymer
PP-Bizon | RMX
PP-Bizon | RMX
M4A4 | Zubastick
Sawed-Off | Fusion
UMP-45 | Fragment12 further eligible inputs are available — open the reverse trade-up calculator to price a full contract against your own inventory.
What else this contract can land on
A contract from Sealed Dead Hand Terminal draws uniformly from every Restricted Rifle skin in the pool, so M4A1-S | Electrum is one of 5 equally likely results. These are the other 4.
| Outcome | Odds | Cheapest price |
|---|---|---|
| M4A1-S | Electrumyour target | 20% | $0.67 |
| Desert Eagle | Firebreathing | 20% | $0.64 |
| MP9 | Urban Sovereign | 20% | $0.55 |
| MP7 | Amberline | 20% | $0.54 |
| Galil AR | Galigator | 20% | $0.53 |
Input float for each exterior
CS2 normalises float across a trade-up: each input’s float becomes a 0–1 position inside its own range, those are averaged, and the average is applied to M4A1-S | Electrum’s range of 0.00–1.00. To land a given exterior, your ten inputs must average the normalised float below.
| Target exterior | Output float | Required avg. input float |
|---|---|---|
| Factory New | 0.0350 | 0.0350 |
| Minimal Wear | 0.1100 | 0.1100 |
| Field-Tested | 0.2650 | 0.2650 |
| Well-Worn | 0.4150 | 0.4150 |
| Battle-Scarred | 0.7250 | 0.7250 |
“Not reachable” means M4A1-S | Electrum’s own float range never enters that exterior band — no combination of inputs can produce it.
What M4A1-S | Electrum is worth right now
Worth comparing against the contract cost above before you commit: buying the skin outright is frequently cheaper than rolling for it.
| Exterior | Price | vs. contract cost |
|---|---|---|
| Battle-Scarred | $0.67 | +$0.07 |
| Well-Worn | $0.71 | +$0.11 |
| Field-Tested | $1.01 | +$0.41 |
| Minimal Wear | $2.03 | +$1.43 |
| Factory New | $6.16 | +$5.56 |
Build this contract
Price a full ten-slot contract against live inputs, set your own float values, and see the outcome odds update as you go.