How to Trade Up to Glock-18 | Water Elemental
Glock-18 | Water Elemental drops from Operation Breakout Weapon CaseOperation Breakout Weapon Case, Operation Breakout Weapon Case, Operation Breakout Weapon Case, Operation Breakout Weapon Case, Operation Breakout Weapon Case, Operation Breakout Weapon Case, Operation Breakout Weapon Case, Operation Breakout Weapon Case, Operation Breakout Weapon Case, Operation Breakout Weapon Case, Operation Breakout Weapon Case, Operation Breakout Weapon Case, Operation Breakout Weapon Case, Operation Breakout Weapon Case, Operation Breakout Weapon Case, so any contract that can produce it needs 10 Restricted skins from those same cases. Here is what the contract costs, what else it can land on, and the input float you need for each exterior.
- Odds per contract
- 33.33% 1 in 3
- Contract cost from
- $2240.00 10× cheapest input
- Expected value
- $1939.00 mean of the outcome pool
- Margin
- -13.4% $-301.00 per contract
Buying is cheaper than rolling. A Battle-Scarred Glock-18 | Water Elemental costs $1921.00 outright, against $2240.00 for a contract with a 33.33% chance of producing one. Trade up for the process, not the value.
The contract
Ten inputs, all Restricted, all from Operation Breakout Weapon CaseOperation Breakout Weapon Case or Operation Breakout Weapon Case or Operation Breakout Weapon Case or Operation Breakout Weapon Case or Operation Breakout Weapon Case or Operation Breakout Weapon Case or Operation Breakout Weapon Case or Operation Breakout Weapon Case or Operation Breakout Weapon Case or Operation Breakout Weapon Case or Operation Breakout Weapon Case or Operation Breakout Weapon Case or Operation Breakout Weapon Case or Operation Breakout Weapon Case or Operation Breakout Weapon Case. Concentrating every input in one case is what keeps your odds at 33.33% — mixing cases splits the probability across both pools and lowers your chance at Glock-18 | Water Elemental specifically.
CZ75-Auto | Tigris
P250 | Supernova
PP-Bizon | Osiris
CZ75-Auto | Tigris
PP-Bizon | Osiris
P250 | Supernova
PP-Bizon | Osiris
Nova | Koi
Nova | Koi
CZ75-Auto | Tigris
PP-Bizon | Osiris
CZ75-Auto | Tigris5 further eligible inputs are available — open the reverse trade-up calculator to price a full contract against your own inventory.
What else this contract can land on
A contract from Operation Breakout Weapon CaseOperation Breakout Weapon Case / Operation Breakout Weapon Case / Operation Breakout Weapon Case / Operation Breakout Weapon Case / Operation Breakout Weapon Case / Operation Breakout Weapon Case / Operation Breakout Weapon Case / Operation Breakout Weapon Case / Operation Breakout Weapon Case / Operation Breakout Weapon Case / Operation Breakout Weapon Case / Operation Breakout Weapon Case / Operation Breakout Weapon Case / Operation Breakout Weapon Case / Operation Breakout Weapon Case draws uniformly from every Classified Pistol skin in the pool, so Glock-18 | Water Elemental is one of 3 equally likely results. These are the other 2.
| Outcome | Odds | Cheapest price |
|---|---|---|
| Five-SeveN | Fowl Play | 33.33% | $1949.00 |
| Desert Eagle | Conspiracy | 33.33% | $1947.00 |
| Glock-18 | Water Elementalyour target | 33.33% | $1921.00 |
Input float for each exterior
CS2 normalises float across a trade-up: each input’s float becomes a 0–1 position inside its own range, those are averaged, and the average is applied to Glock-18 | Water Elemental’s range of 0.00–0.70. To land a given exterior, your ten inputs must average the normalised float below.
| Target exterior | Output float | Required avg. input float |
|---|---|---|
| Factory New | 0.0350 | 0.0500 |
| Minimal Wear | 0.1100 | 0.1571 |
| Field-Tested | 0.2650 | 0.3786 |
| Well-Worn | 0.4150 | 0.5929 |
| Battle-Scarred | 0.5750 | 0.8214 |
“Not reachable” means Glock-18 | Water Elemental’s own float range never enters that exterior band — no combination of inputs can produce it.
What Glock-18 | Water Elemental is worth right now
Worth comparing against the contract cost above before you commit: buying the skin outright is frequently cheaper than rolling for it.
| Exterior | Price | vs. contract cost |
|---|---|---|
| Battle-Scarred | $1921.00 | −$319.00 |
| Field-Tested | $1962.00 | −$278.00 |
| Well-Worn | $2035.00 | −$205.00 |
| Minimal Wear | $2049.00 | −$191.00 |
| Factory New | $6524.00 | +$4284.00 |
Build this contract
Price a full ten-slot contract against live inputs, set your own float values, and see the outcome odds update as you go.