How to Trade Up to AUG | Aristocrat
AUG | Aristocrat drops from Gamma Case, so any contract that can produce it needs 10 Mil-Spec skins from that same case. Here is what the contract costs, what else it can land on, and the input float you need for each exterior.
- Odds per contract
- 20% 1 in 5
- Contract cost from
- $2.60 10× cheapest input
- Expected value
- $1.39 mean of the outcome pool
- Margin
- -46.5% $-1.21 per contract
Buying is cheaper than rolling. A Battle-Scarred AUG | Aristocrat costs $1.24 outright, against $2.60 for a contract with a 20% chance of producing one. Trade up for the process, not the value.
The contract
10 inputs, all Mil-Spec, all from Gamma Case. Concentrating every input in one case is what keeps your odds at 20% — mixing cases splits the probability across both pools and lowers your chance at AUG | Aristocrat specifically.
PP-Bizon | Harvester
PP-Bizon | Harvester
MAC-10 | Carnivore
MAC-10 | Carnivore
SG 553 | Aerial
Nova | Exo
Nova | Exo
P250 | Iron Clad
P250 | Iron Clad
SG 553 | Aerial
Nova | Exo
SG 553 | Aerial12 further eligible inputs are available — open the reverse trade-up calculator to price a full contract against your own inventory.
What else this contract can land on
A contract from Gamma Case draws uniformly from every Restricted Rifle skin in the pool, so AUG | Aristocrat is one of 5 equally likely results. These are the other 4.
| Outcome | Odds | Cheapest price |
|---|---|---|
| AWP | Phobos | 20% | $2.07 |
| AUG | Aristocratyour target | 20% | $1.24 |
| R8 Revolver | Reboot | 20% | $1.23 |
| Sawed-Off | Limelight | 20% | $1.22 |
| P90 | Chopper | 20% | $1.21 |
Input float for each exterior
CS2 normalises float across a trade-up: each input’s float becomes a 0–1 position inside its own range, those are averaged, and the average is applied to AUG | Aristocrat’s range of 0.00–0.66. To land a given exterior, your ten inputs must average the normalised float below.
| Target exterior | Output float | Required avg. input float |
|---|---|---|
| Factory New | 0.0350 | 0.0530 |
| Minimal Wear | 0.1100 | 0.1667 |
| Field-Tested | 0.2650 | 0.4015 |
| Well-Worn | 0.4150 | 0.6288 |
| Battle-Scarred | 0.5550 | 0.8409 |
“Not reachable” means AUG | Aristocrat’s own float range never enters that exterior band — no combination of inputs can produce it.
What AUG | Aristocrat is worth right now
Worth comparing against the contract cost above before you commit: buying the skin outright is frequently cheaper than rolling for it.
| Exterior | Price | vs. contract cost |
|---|---|---|
| Battle-Scarred | $1.24 | −$1.36 |
| Field-Tested | $1.28 | −$1.32 |
| Well-Worn | $1.43 | −$1.17 |
| Minimal Wear | $1.57 | −$1.03 |
| Factory New | $5.91 | +$3.31 |
Build this contract
Price a full ten-slot contract against live inputs, set your own float values, and see the outcome odds update as you go.