How to Trade Up to AK-47 | Slate
AK-47 | Slate drops from Snakebite CaseSnakebite Case, Snakebite Case, Snakebite Case, Snakebite Case, Snakebite Case, Snakebite Case, Snakebite Case, Snakebite Case, Snakebite Case, Snakebite Case, Snakebite Case, Snakebite Case, Snakebite Case, Snakebite Case, Snakebite Case, Snakebite Case, so any contract that can produce it needs 10 Mil-Spec skins from those same cases. Here is what the contract costs, what else it can land on, and the input float you need for each exterior.
- Odds per contract
- 20% 1 in 5
- Contract cost from
- $160.00 10× cheapest input
- Expected value
- $100.20 mean of the outcome pool
- Margin
- -37.4% $-59.80 per contract
This contract is EV-negative. The cheapest ten inputs cost $160.00 and the outcome pool averages $100.20, so it loses $59.80 per contract on average even before you account for hitting the wrong skin.
The contract
Ten inputs, all Mil-Spec, all from Snakebite CaseSnakebite Case or Snakebite Case or Snakebite Case or Snakebite Case or Snakebite Case or Snakebite Case or Snakebite Case or Snakebite Case or Snakebite Case or Snakebite Case or Snakebite Case or Snakebite Case or Snakebite Case or Snakebite Case or Snakebite Case or Snakebite Case. Concentrating every input in one case is what keeps your odds at 20% — mixing cases splits the probability across both pools and lowers your chance at AK-47 | Slate specifically.
M249 | O.S.I.P.R.
CZ75-Auto | Circaetus
SG 553 | Heavy Metal
CZ75-Auto | Circaetus
R8 Revolver | Junk Yard
SG 553 | Heavy Metal
R8 Revolver | Junk Yard
UMP-45 | Oscillator
Nova | Windblown
R8 Revolver | Junk Yard
CZ75-Auto | Circaetus
M249 | O.S.I.P.R.12 further eligible inputs are available — open the reverse trade-up calculator to price a full contract against your own inventory.
What else this contract can land on
A contract from Snakebite CaseSnakebite Case / Snakebite Case / Snakebite Case / Snakebite Case / Snakebite Case / Snakebite Case / Snakebite Case / Snakebite Case / Snakebite Case / Snakebite Case / Snakebite Case / Snakebite Case / Snakebite Case / Snakebite Case / Snakebite Case / Snakebite Case draws uniformly from every Restricted Rifle skin in the pool, so AK-47 | Slate is one of 5 equally likely results. These are the other 4.
| Outcome | Odds | Cheapest price |
|---|---|---|
| AK-47 | Slateyour target | 20% | $336.00 |
| Desert Eagle | Trigger Discipline | 20% | $53.00 |
| P250 | Cyber Shell | 20% | $38.00 |
| Negev | dev_texture | 20% | $38.00 |
| MAC-10 | Button Masher | 20% | $36.00 |
Input float for each exterior
CS2 normalises float across a trade-up: each input’s float becomes a 0–1 position inside its own range, those are averaged, and the average is applied to AK-47 | Slate’s range of 0.00–1.00. To land a given exterior, your ten inputs must average the normalised float below.
| Target exterior | Output float | Required avg. input float |
|---|---|---|
| Factory New | 0.0350 | 0.0350 |
| Minimal Wear | 0.1100 | 0.1100 |
| Field-Tested | 0.2650 | 0.2650 |
| Well-Worn | 0.4150 | 0.4150 |
| Battle-Scarred | 0.7250 | 0.7250 |
“Not reachable” means AK-47 | Slate’s own float range never enters that exterior band — no combination of inputs can produce it.
What AK-47 | Slate is worth right now
Worth comparing against the contract cost above before you commit: buying the skin outright is frequently cheaper than rolling for it.
| Exterior | Price | vs. contract cost |
|---|---|---|
| Battle-Scarred | $336.00 | +$176.00 |
| Well-Worn | $345.00 | +$185.00 |
| Field-Tested | $411.00 | +$251.00 |
| Minimal Wear | $651.00 | +$491.00 |
| Factory New | $1611.00 | +$1451.00 |
Build this contract
Price a full ten-slot contract against live inputs, set your own float values, and see the outcome odds update as you go.