How to Trade Up to AK-47 | Slate
AK-47 | Slate drops from Snakebite Case, so any contract that can produce it needs 10 Mil-Spec skins from that same case. Here is what the contract costs, what else it can land on, and the input float you need for each exterior.
- Odds per contract
- 20% 1 in 5
- Contract cost from
- $2.20 10 × cheapest input
- Expected value
- $0.96 mean of the outcome pool
- Margin
- -56.4% $-1.24 per contract
This contract is EV-negative. The cheapest ten inputs cost $2.20 and the outcome pool averages $0.96, so it loses $1.24 per contract on average even before you account for hitting the wrong skin.
The contract
10 inputs, all Mil-Spec, all from Snakebite Case. Concentrating every input in one case is what keeps your odds at 20% — mixing cases splits the probability across both pools and lowers your chance at AK-47 | Slate specifically.
SG 553 | Heavy Metal
R8 Revolver | Junk Yard
CZ75-Auto | Circaetus
Nova | Windblown
R8 Revolver | Junk Yard
M249 | O.S.I.P.R.
SG 553 | Heavy Metal
CZ75-Auto | Circaetus
Nova | Windblown
M249 | O.S.I.P.R.
M249 | O.S.I.P.R.
Nova | Windblown12 further eligible inputs are available — open the reverse trade-up finder to price a full contract against your own inventory.
What else this contract can land on
A contract from Snakebite Case draws uniformly from every Restricted Rifle skin in the pool, so AK-47 | Slate is one of 5 equally likely results. These are the other 4.
| Outcome | Odds | Cheapest price |
|---|---|---|
| AK-47 | Slateyour target | 20% | $3.28 |
| Desert Eagle | Trigger Discipline | 20% | $0.53 |
| Negev | dev_texture | 20% | $0.33 |
| MAC-10 | Button Masher | 20% | $0.33 |
| P250 | Cyber Shell | 20% | $0.32 |
Input float for each exterior
CS2 normalises float across a trade-up: each input’s float becomes a 0–1 position inside its own range, those are averaged, and the average is applied to AK-47 | Slate’s range of 0.00–1.00. To land a given exterior, your ten inputs must average the normalised float below.
| Target exterior | Output float | Required avg. input float |
|---|---|---|
| Factory New | 0.0350 | 0.0350 |
| Minimal Wear | 0.1100 | 0.1100 |
| Field-Tested | 0.2650 | 0.2650 |
| Well-Worn | 0.4150 | 0.4150 |
| Battle-Scarred | 0.7250 | 0.7250 |
“Not reachable” means AK-47 | Slate’s own float range never enters that exterior band — no combination of inputs can produce it.
What AK-47 | Slate is worth right now
Worth comparing against the contract cost above before you commit: buying the skin outright is frequently cheaper than rolling for it.
| Exterior | Price | vs. contract cost |
|---|---|---|
| Battle-Scarred | $3.28 | +$1.08 |
| Well-Worn | $3.37 | +$1.17 |
| Field-Tested | $3.96 | +$1.76 |
| Minimal Wear | $6.58 | +$4.38 |
| Factory New | $13.79 | +$11.59 |
Build this contract
Price a full ten-slot contract against live inputs, set your own float values, and see the outcome odds update as you go.