How to Trade Up to Tec-9 | Toxic
Tec-9 | Toxic drops from ESL One Cologne 2014 Cache Souvenir Package, DreamHack 2014 Cache Souvenir Package, ESL One Katowice 2015 Cache Souvenir Package, ESL One Cologne 2015 Cache Souvenir Package, DreamHack Cluj-Napoca 2015 Cache Souvenir Package, MLG Columbus 2016 Cache Souvenir Package, Cologne 2016 Cache Souvenir Package, Atlanta 2017 Cache Souvenir Package, Krakow 2017 Cache Souvenir Package, Boston 2018 Cache Souvenir Package, London 2018 Cache Souvenir Package, Katowice 2019 Cache Souvenir Package, so any contract that can produce it needs 10 Industrial Grade skins from those same cases. Here is what the contract costs, what else it can land on, and the input float you need for each exterior.
- Odds per contract
- 20% 1 in 5
- Contract cost from
- $1700.00 10× cheapest input
- Expected value
- $1161.60 mean of the outcome pool
- Margin
- -31.7% $-538.40 per contract
Buying is cheaper than rolling. A Field-Tested Tec-9 | Toxic costs $1086.00 outright, against $1700.00 for a contract with a 20% chance of producing one. Trade up for the process, not the value.
The contract
Ten inputs, all Industrial Grade, all from ESL One Cologne 2014 Cache Souvenir Package or DreamHack 2014 Cache Souvenir Package or ESL One Katowice 2015 Cache Souvenir Package or ESL One Cologne 2015 Cache Souvenir Package or DreamHack Cluj-Napoca 2015 Cache Souvenir Package or MLG Columbus 2016 Cache Souvenir Package or Cologne 2016 Cache Souvenir Package or Atlanta 2017 Cache Souvenir Package or Krakow 2017 Cache Souvenir Package or Boston 2018 Cache Souvenir Package or London 2018 Cache Souvenir Package or Katowice 2019 Cache Souvenir Package. Concentrating every input in one case is what keeps your odds at 20% — mixing cases splits the probability across both pools and lowers your chance at Tec-9 | Toxic specifically.
PP-Bizon | Chemical Green
P250 | Contamination
AUG | Radiation Hazard
Negev | Nuclear Waste
PP-Bizon | Chemical Green
P250 | Contamination
AUG | Radiation Hazard
PP-Bizon | Chemical Green
AUG | Radiation Hazard
Five-SeveN | Hot Shot
Five-SeveN | Hot Shot
Negev | Nuclear Waste12 further eligible inputs are available — open the reverse trade-up calculator to price a full contract against your own inventory.
What else this contract can land on
A contract from ESL One Cologne 2014 Cache Souvenir Package / DreamHack 2014 Cache Souvenir Package / ESL One Katowice 2015 Cache Souvenir Package / ESL One Cologne 2015 Cache Souvenir Package / DreamHack Cluj-Napoca 2015 Cache Souvenir Package / MLG Columbus 2016 Cache Souvenir Package / Cologne 2016 Cache Souvenir Package / Atlanta 2017 Cache Souvenir Package / Krakow 2017 Cache Souvenir Package / Boston 2018 Cache Souvenir Package / London 2018 Cache Souvenir Package / Katowice 2019 Cache Souvenir Package draws uniformly from every Mil-Spec Grade Pistol skin in the pool, so Tec-9 | Toxic is one of 5 equally likely results. These are the other 4.
| Outcome | Odds | Cheapest price |
|---|---|---|
| Glock-18 | Reactor | 20% | $1334.00 |
| MAC-10 | Nuclear Garden | 20% | $1225.00 |
| XM1014 | Bone Machine | 20% | $1087.00 |
| Tec-9 | Toxicyour target | 20% | $1086.00 |
| MP9 | Setting Sun | 20% | $1076.00 |
Input float for each exterior
CS2 normalises float across a trade-up: each input’s float becomes a 0–1 position inside its own range, those are averaged, and the average is applied to Tec-9 | Toxic’s range of 0.00–0.70. To land a given exterior, your ten inputs must average the normalised float below.
| Target exterior | Output float | Required avg. input float |
|---|---|---|
| Factory New | 0.0350 | 0.0500 |
| Minimal Wear | 0.1100 | 0.1571 |
| Field-Tested | 0.2650 | 0.3786 |
| Well-Worn | 0.4150 | 0.5929 |
| Battle-Scarred | 0.5750 | 0.8214 |
“Not reachable” means Tec-9 | Toxic’s own float range never enters that exterior band — no combination of inputs can produce it.
What Tec-9 | Toxic is worth right now
Worth comparing against the contract cost above before you commit: buying the skin outright is frequently cheaper than rolling for it.
| Exterior | Price | vs. contract cost |
|---|---|---|
| Field-Tested | $1086.00 | −$614.00 |
| Battle-Scarred | $1120.00 | −$580.00 |
| Well-Worn | $1493.00 | −$207.00 |
| Minimal Wear | $1567.00 | −$133.00 |
| Factory New | $4208.00 | +$2508.00 |
Build this contract
Price a full ten-slot contract against live inputs, set your own float values, and see the outcome odds update as you go.