How to Trade Up to SG 553 | Colony IV
SG 553 | Colony IV drops from Shattered Web CaseShattered Web Case, Shattered Web Case, Shattered Web Case, Shattered Web Case, Shattered Web Case, Shattered Web Case, Shattered Web Case, Shattered Web Case, Shattered Web Case, Shattered Web Case, Shattered Web Case, Shattered Web Case, Shattered Web Case, Shattered Web Case, Shattered Web Case, so any contract that can produce it needs 10 Restricted skins from those same cases. Here is what the contract costs, what else it can land on, and the input float you need for each exterior.
- Odds per contract
- 33.33% 1 in 3
- Contract cost from
- $1420.00 10× cheapest input
- Expected value
- $1355.33 mean of the outcome pool
- Margin
- -4.6% $-64.67 per contract
Buying is cheaper than rolling. A Battle-Scarred SG 553 | Colony IV costs $623.00 outright, against $1420.00 for a contract with a 33.33% chance of producing one. Trade up for the process, not the value.
The contract
Ten inputs, all Restricted, all from Shattered Web CaseShattered Web Case or Shattered Web Case or Shattered Web Case or Shattered Web Case or Shattered Web Case or Shattered Web Case or Shattered Web Case or Shattered Web Case or Shattered Web Case or Shattered Web Case or Shattered Web Case or Shattered Web Case or Shattered Web Case or Shattered Web Case or Shattered Web Case. Concentrating every input in one case is what keeps your odds at 33.33% — mixing cases splits the probability across both pools and lowers your chance at SG 553 | Colony IV specifically.
PP-Bizon | Embargo
PP-Bizon | Embargo
AUG | Arctic Wolf
AUG | Arctic Wolf
PP-Bizon | Embargo
AUG | Arctic Wolf
P2000 | Obsidian
MP7 | Neon Ply
MP7 | Neon Ply
MP7 | Neon Ply
P2000 | Obsidian
P2000 | Obsidian12 further eligible inputs are available — open the reverse trade-up calculator to price a full contract against your own inventory.
What else this contract can land on
A contract from Shattered Web CaseShattered Web Case / Shattered Web Case / Shattered Web Case / Shattered Web Case / Shattered Web Case / Shattered Web Case / Shattered Web Case / Shattered Web Case / Shattered Web Case / Shattered Web Case / Shattered Web Case / Shattered Web Case / Shattered Web Case / Shattered Web Case / Shattered Web Case draws uniformly from every Classified Rifle skin in the pool, so SG 553 | Colony IV is one of 3 equally likely results. These are the other 2.
| Outcome | Odds | Cheapest price |
|---|---|---|
| SSG 08 | Bloodshot | 33.33% | $1870.00 |
| Tec-9 | Decimator | 33.33% | $1573.00 |
| SG 553 | Colony IVyour target | 33.33% | $623.00 |
Input float for each exterior
CS2 normalises float across a trade-up: each input’s float becomes a 0–1 position inside its own range, those are averaged, and the average is applied to SG 553 | Colony IV’s range of 0.00–1.00. To land a given exterior, your ten inputs must average the normalised float below.
| Target exterior | Output float | Required avg. input float |
|---|---|---|
| Factory New | 0.0350 | 0.0350 |
| Minimal Wear | 0.1100 | 0.1100 |
| Field-Tested | 0.2650 | 0.2650 |
| Well-Worn | 0.4150 | 0.4150 |
| Battle-Scarred | 0.7250 | 0.7250 |
“Not reachable” means SG 553 | Colony IV’s own float range never enters that exterior band — no combination of inputs can produce it.
What SG 553 | Colony IV is worth right now
Worth comparing against the contract cost above before you commit: buying the skin outright is frequently cheaper than rolling for it.
| Exterior | Price | vs. contract cost |
|---|---|---|
| Battle-Scarred | $623.00 | −$797.00 |
| Well-Worn | $626.00 | −$794.00 |
| Field-Tested | $696.00 | −$724.00 |
| Minimal Wear | $1728.00 | +$308.00 |
| Factory New | $5874.00 | +$4454.00 |
Build this contract
Price a full ten-slot contract against live inputs, set your own float values, and see the outcome odds update as you go.