How to Trade Up to P250 | Supernova
P250 | Supernova drops from Operation Breakout Weapon Case, so any contract that can produce it needs 10 Mil-Spec skins from that same case. Here is what the contract costs, what else it can land on, and the input float you need for each exterior.
- Odds per contract
- 25% 1 in 4
- Contract cost from
- $3.10 10× cheapest input
- Expected value
- $2.27 mean of the outcome pool
- Margin
- -26.8% $-0.83 per contract
Buying is cheaper than rolling. A Minimal Wear P250 | Supernova costs $2.29 outright, against $3.10 for a contract with a 25% chance of producing one. Trade up for the process, not the value.
The contract
10 inputs, all Mil-Spec, all from Operation Breakout Weapon Case. Concentrating every input in one case is what keeps your odds at 25% — mixing cases splits the probability across both pools and lowers your chance at P250 | Supernova specifically.
SSG 08 | Abyss
MP7 | Urban Hazard
SSG 08 | Abyss
Negev | Desert-Strike
P2000 | Ivory
Negev | Desert-Strike
MP7 | Urban Hazard
Negev | Desert-Strike
MP7 | Urban Hazard
UMP-45 | Labyrinth
P2000 | Ivory
UMP-45 | Labyrinth12 further eligible inputs are available — open the reverse trade-up calculator to price a full contract against your own inventory.
What else this contract can land on
A contract from Operation Breakout Weapon Case draws uniformly from every Restricted Pistol skin in the pool, so P250 | Supernova is one of 4 equally likely results. These are the other 3.
| Outcome | Odds | Cheapest price |
|---|---|---|
| P250 | Supernovayour target | 25% | $2.29 |
| Nova | Koi | 25% | $2.28 |
| PP-Bizon | Osiris | 25% | $2.26 |
| CZ75-Auto | Tigris | 25% | $2.23 |
Input float for each exterior
CS2 normalises float across a trade-up: each input’s float becomes a 0–1 position inside its own range, those are averaged, and the average is applied to P250 | Supernova’s range of 0.00–0.40. To land a given exterior, your ten inputs must average the normalised float below.
| Target exterior | Output float | Required avg. input float |
|---|---|---|
| Factory New | 0.0350 | 0.0875 |
| Minimal Wear | 0.1100 | 0.2750 |
| Field-Tested | 0.2650 | 0.6625 |
| Well-Worn | 0.3900 | 0.9750 |
| Battle-Scarred | — | not reachable |
“Not reachable” means P250 | Supernova’s own float range never enters that exterior band — no combination of inputs can produce it.
What P250 | Supernova is worth right now
Worth comparing against the contract cost above before you commit: buying the skin outright is frequently cheaper than rolling for it.
| Exterior | Price | vs. contract cost |
|---|---|---|
| Minimal Wear | $2.29 | −$0.81 |
| Field-Tested | $2.32 | −$0.78 |
| Well-Worn | $2.61 | −$0.49 |
| Factory New | $4.62 | +$1.52 |
Build this contract
Price a full ten-slot contract against live inputs, set your own float values, and see the outcome odds update as you go.