How to Trade Up to Nova | Toy Soldier
Nova | Toy Soldier drops from Horizon Case, so any contract that can produce it needs 10 Mil-Spec skins from that same case. Here is what the contract costs, what else it can land on, and the input float you need for each exterior.
- Odds per contract
- 20% 1 in 5
- Contract cost from
- $2.50 10 × cheapest input
- Expected value
- $1.03 mean of the outcome pool
- Margin
- -58.8% $-1.47 per contract
Buying is cheaper than rolling. A Well-Worn Nova | Toy Soldier costs $0.70 outright, against $2.50 for a contract with a 20% chance of producing one. Trade up for the process, not the value.
The contract
10 inputs, all Mil-Spec, all from Horizon Case. Concentrating every input in one case is what keeps your odds at 20% — mixing cases splits the probability across both pools and lowers your chance at Nova | Toy Soldier specifically.
Tec-9 | Snek-9
Tec-9 | Snek-9
R8 Revolver | Survivalist
MP9 | Capillary
Glock-18 | Warhawk
Glock-18 | Warhawk
P90 | Traction
AUG | Amber Slipstream
Dual Berettas | Shred
P90 | Traction
AUG | Amber Slipstream
MP9 | Capillary12 further eligible inputs are available — open the reverse trade-up finder to price a full contract against your own inventory.
What else this contract can land on
A contract from Horizon Case draws uniformly from every Restricted Shotgun skin in the pool, so Nova | Toy Soldier is one of 5 equally likely results. These are the other 4.
| Outcome | Odds | Cheapest price |
|---|---|---|
| AWP | PAW | 20% | $1.94 |
| MP7 | Powercore | 20% | $1.02 |
| G3SG1 | High Seas | 20% | $0.81 |
| Nova | Toy Soldieryour target | 20% | $0.70 |
| CZ75-Auto | Eco | 20% | $0.70 |
Input float for each exterior
CS2 normalises float across a trade-up: each input’s float becomes a 0–1 position inside its own range, those are averaged, and the average is applied to Nova | Toy Soldier’s range of 0.00–1.00. To land a given exterior, your ten inputs must average the normalised float below.
| Target exterior | Output float | Required avg. input float |
|---|---|---|
| Factory New | 0.0350 | 0.0350 |
| Minimal Wear | 0.1100 | 0.1100 |
| Field-Tested | 0.2650 | 0.2650 |
| Well-Worn | 0.4150 | 0.4150 |
| Battle-Scarred | 0.7250 | 0.7250 |
“Not reachable” means Nova | Toy Soldier’s own float range never enters that exterior band — no combination of inputs can produce it.
What Nova | Toy Soldier is worth right now
Worth comparing against the contract cost above before you commit: buying the skin outright is frequently cheaper than rolling for it.
| Exterior | Price | vs. contract cost |
|---|---|---|
| Well-Worn | $0.70 | −$1.80 |
| Battle-Scarred | $0.74 | −$1.76 |
| Field-Tested | $0.85 | −$1.65 |
| Minimal Wear | $5.91 | +$3.41 |
| Factory New | $12.57 | +$10.07 |
Build this contract
Price a full ten-slot contract against live inputs, set your own float values, and see the outcome odds update as you go.