How to Trade Up to Nova | Koi
Nova | Koi drops from Operation Breakout Weapon Case, so any contract that can produce it needs 10 Mil-Spec skins from that same case. Here is what the contract costs, what else it can land on, and the input float you need for each exterior.
- Odds per contract
- 25% 1 in 4
- Contract cost from
- $3.20 10 × cheapest input
- Expected value
- $2.31 mean of the outcome pool
- Margin
- -27.8% $-0.89 per contract
Buying is cheaper than rolling. A Minimal Wear Nova | Koi costs $2.31 outright, against $3.20 for a contract with a 25% chance of producing one. Trade up for the process, not the value.
The contract
10 inputs, all Mil-Spec, all from Operation Breakout Weapon Case. Concentrating every input in one case is what keeps your odds at 25% — mixing cases splits the probability across both pools and lowers your chance at Nova | Koi specifically.
Negev | Desert-Strike
P2000 | Ivory
SSG 08 | Abyss
MP7 | Urban Hazard
P2000 | Ivory
Negev | Desert-Strike
MP7 | Urban Hazard
MP7 | Urban Hazard
SSG 08 | Abyss
UMP-45 | Labyrinth
P2000 | Ivory
Negev | Desert-Strike12 further eligible inputs are available — open the reverse trade-up calculator to price a full contract against your own inventory.
What else this contract can land on
A contract from Operation Breakout Weapon Case draws uniformly from every Restricted Shotgun skin in the pool, so Nova | Koi is one of 4 equally likely results. These are the other 3.
| Outcome | Odds | Cheapest price |
|---|---|---|
| PP-Bizon | Osiris | 25% | $2.37 |
| P250 | Supernova | 25% | $2.34 |
| Nova | Koiyour target | 25% | $2.31 |
| CZ75-Auto | Tigris | 25% | $2.21 |
Input float for each exterior
CS2 normalises float across a trade-up: each input’s float becomes a 0–1 position inside its own range, those are averaged, and the average is applied to Nova | Koi’s range of 0.00–0.30. To land a given exterior, your ten inputs must average the normalised float below.
| Target exterior | Output float | Required avg. input float |
|---|---|---|
| Factory New | 0.0350 | 0.1167 |
| Minimal Wear | 0.1100 | 0.3667 |
| Field-Tested | 0.2250 | 0.7500 |
| Well-Worn | — | not reachable |
| Battle-Scarred | — | not reachable |
“Not reachable” means Nova | Koi’s own float range never enters that exterior band — no combination of inputs can produce it.
What Nova | Koi is worth right now
Worth comparing against the contract cost above before you commit: buying the skin outright is frequently cheaper than rolling for it.
| Exterior | Price | vs. contract cost |
|---|---|---|
| Minimal Wear | $2.31 | −$0.89 |
| Field-Tested | $2.38 | −$0.82 |
| Factory New | $3.10 | −$0.10 |
Build this contract
Price a full ten-slot contract against live inputs, set your own float values, and see the outcome odds update as you go.