How to Trade Up to Nova | Gila
Nova | Gila drops from Glove Case, so any contract that can produce it needs 10 Mil-Spec skins from that same case. Here is what the contract costs, what else it can land on, and the input float you need for each exterior.
- Odds per contract
- 20% 1 in 5
- Contract cost from
- $3.90 10× cheapest input
- Expected value
- $3.20 mean of the outcome pool
- Margin
- -17.9% $-0.70 per contract
Buying is cheaper than rolling. A Minimal Wear Nova | Gila costs $3.53 outright, against $3.90 for a contract with a 20% chance of producing one. Trade up for the process, not the value.
The contract
10 inputs, all Mil-Spec, all from Glove Case. Concentrating every input in one case is what keeps your odds at 20% — mixing cases splits the probability across both pools and lowers your chance at Nova | Gila specifically.
Galil AR | Black Sand
Galil AR | Black Sand
P2000 | Turf
MP9 | Sand Scale
P2000 | Turf
CZ75-Auto | Polymer
MAG-7 | Sonar
MP9 | Sand Scale
Glock-18 | Ironwork
Glock-18 | Ironwork
MAG-7 | Sonar
CZ75-Auto | Polymer12 further eligible inputs are available — open the reverse trade-up calculator to price a full contract against your own inventory.
What else this contract can land on
A contract from Glove Case draws uniformly from every Restricted Shotgun skin in the pool, so Nova | Gila is one of 5 equally likely results. These are the other 4.
| Outcome | Odds | Cheapest price |
|---|---|---|
| Nova | Gilayour target | 20% | $3.53 |
| USP-S | Cyrex | 20% | $3.33 |
| G3SG1 | Stinger | 20% | $3.15 |
| Dual Berettas | Royal Consorts | 20% | $3.01 |
| M4A1-S | Flashback | 20% | $3.00 |
Input float for each exterior
CS2 normalises float across a trade-up: each input’s float becomes a 0–1 position inside its own range, those are averaged, and the average is applied to Nova | Gila’s range of 0.00–0.30. To land a given exterior, your ten inputs must average the normalised float below.
| Target exterior | Output float | Required avg. input float |
|---|---|---|
| Factory New | 0.0350 | 0.1167 |
| Minimal Wear | 0.1100 | 0.3667 |
| Field-Tested | 0.2250 | 0.7500 |
| Well-Worn | — | not reachable |
| Battle-Scarred | — | not reachable |
“Not reachable” means Nova | Gila’s own float range never enters that exterior band — no combination of inputs can produce it.
What Nova | Gila is worth right now
Worth comparing against the contract cost above before you commit: buying the skin outright is frequently cheaper than rolling for it.
| Exterior | Price | vs. contract cost |
|---|---|---|
| Minimal Wear | $3.53 | −$0.37 |
| Field-Tested | $3.59 | −$0.31 |
| Factory New | $7.50 | +$3.60 |
Build this contract
Price a full ten-slot contract against live inputs, set your own float values, and see the outcome odds update as you go.