How to Trade Up to MP9 | Hot Rod
MP9 | Hot Rod drops from DreamHack 2013 Souvenir Package, EMS One 2014 Souvenir Package, ESL One Cologne 2014 Mirage Souvenir Package, DreamHack 2014 Mirage Souvenir Package, ESL One Katowice 2015 Mirage Souvenir Package, ESL One Cologne 2015 Mirage Souvenir Package, DreamHack Cluj-Napoca 2015 Mirage Souvenir Package, MLG Columbus 2016 Mirage Souvenir Package, Cologne 2016 Mirage Souvenir Package, Atlanta 2017 Mirage Souvenir Package, Krakow 2017 Mirage Souvenir Package, Boston 2018 Mirage Souvenir Package, London 2018 Mirage Souvenir Package, Katowice 2019 Mirage Souvenir Package, Berlin 2019 Mirage Souvenir Package, London 2018 Mirage Souve, so any contract that can produce it needs 10 Industrial Grade skins from those same cases. Here is what the contract costs, what else it can land on, and the input float you need for each exterior.
- Odds per contract
- 33.33% 1 in 3
- Contract cost from
- $144.00 10 × cheapest input
- Expected value
- $77.79 mean of the outcome pool
- Margin
- -46% $-66.21 per contract
This contract is EV-negative. The cheapest ten inputs cost $144.00 and the outcome pool averages $77.79, so it loses $66.21 per contract on average even before you account for hitting the wrong skin.
The contract
10 inputs, all Industrial Grade, all from DreamHack 2013 Souvenir Package or EMS One 2014 Souvenir Package or ESL One Cologne 2014 Mirage Souvenir Package or DreamHack 2014 Mirage Souvenir Package or ESL One Katowice 2015 Mirage Souvenir Package or ESL One Cologne 2015 Mirage Souvenir Package or DreamHack Cluj-Napoca 2015 Mirage Souvenir Package or MLG Columbus 2016 Mirage Souvenir Package or Cologne 2016 Mirage Souvenir Package or Atlanta 2017 Mirage Souvenir Package or Krakow 2017 Mirage Souvenir Package or Boston 2018 Mirage Souvenir Package or London 2018 Mirage Souvenir Package or Katowice 2019 Mirage Souvenir Package or Berlin 2019 Mirage Souvenir Package or London 2018 Mirage Souve. Concentrating every input in one case is what keeps your odds at 33.33% — mixing cases splits the probability across both pools and lowers your chance at MP9 | Hot Rod specifically.
Negev | CaliCamo
Glock-18 | Groundwater
SG 553 | Gator Mesh
SSG 08 | Tropical Storm
SG 553 | Gator Mesh
Negev | CaliCamo
MP7 | Orange Peel
Negev | CaliCamo
SSG 08 | Tropical Storm
SSG 08 | Tropical Storm
SG 553 | Gator Mesh
Glock-18 | Groundwater12 further eligible inputs are available — open the reverse trade-up finder to price a full contract against your own inventory.
What else this contract can land on
A contract from DreamHack 2013 Souvenir Package / EMS One 2014 Souvenir Package / ESL One Cologne 2014 Mirage Souvenir Package / DreamHack 2014 Mirage Souvenir Package / ESL One Katowice 2015 Mirage Souvenir Package / ESL One Cologne 2015 Mirage Souvenir Package / DreamHack Cluj-Napoca 2015 Mirage Souvenir Package / MLG Columbus 2016 Mirage Souvenir Package / Cologne 2016 Mirage Souvenir Package / Atlanta 2017 Mirage Souvenir Package / Krakow 2017 Mirage Souvenir Package / Boston 2018 Mirage Souvenir Package / London 2018 Mirage Souvenir Package / Katowice 2019 Mirage Souvenir Package / Berlin 2019 Mirage Souvenir Package / London 2018 Mirage Souve draws uniformly from every Mil-Spec Grade SMG skin in the pool, so MP9 | Hot Rod is one of 3 equally likely results. These are the other 2.
| Outcome | Odds | Cheapest price |
|---|---|---|
| MP9 | Hot Rodyour target | 33.33% | $199.52 |
| MAC-10 | Amber Fade | 33.33% | $18.23 |
| UMP-45 | Blaze | 33.33% | $15.61 |
Input float for each exterior
CS2 normalises float across a trade-up: each input’s float becomes a 0–1 position inside its own range, those are averaged, and the average is applied to MP9 | Hot Rod’s range of 0.00–0.08. To land a given exterior, your ten inputs must average the normalised float below.
| Target exterior | Output float | Required avg. input float |
|---|---|---|
| Factory New | 0.0350 | 0.4375 |
| Minimal Wear | 0.0750 | 0.9375 |
| Field-Tested | — | not reachable |
| Well-Worn | — | not reachable |
| Battle-Scarred | — | not reachable |
“Not reachable” means MP9 | Hot Rod’s own float range never enters that exterior band — no combination of inputs can produce it.
What MP9 | Hot Rod is worth right now
Worth comparing against the contract cost above before you commit: buying the skin outright is frequently cheaper than rolling for it.
| Exterior | Price | vs. contract cost |
|---|---|---|
| Factory New | $199.52 | +$55.52 |
| Minimal Wear | $227.67 | +$83.67 |
Build this contract
Price a full ten-slot contract against live inputs, set your own float values, and see the outcome odds update as you go.