How to Trade Up to MAC-10 | Case Hardened
MAC-10 | Case Hardened drops from Stockholm 2021 Dust II Souvenir Package, Antwerp 2022 Dust II Souvenir Package, Rio 2022 Dust II Souvenir Package, Shanghai 2024 Dust II Souvenir Package, Austin 2025 Dust II Souvenir Package, Austin 2025 Dust II Souvenir Highlight Package, Budapest 2025 Dust II Souvenir Package, Budapest 2025 Dust II Souvenir Highlight Package, so any contract that can produce it needs 10 Mil-Spec skins from those same cases. Here is what the contract costs, what else it can land on, and the input float you need for each exterior.
- Odds per contract
- 33.33% 1 in 3
- Contract cost from
- $67.20 10 × cheapest input
- Expected value
- $26.44 mean of the outcome pool
- Margin
- -60.7% $-40.76 per contract
Buying is cheaper than rolling. A Field-Tested MAC-10 | Case Hardened costs $25.03 outright, against $67.20 for a contract with a 33.33% chance of producing one. Trade up for the process, not the value.
The contract
10 inputs, all Mil-Spec, all from Stockholm 2021 Dust II Souvenir Package or Antwerp 2022 Dust II Souvenir Package or Rio 2022 Dust II Souvenir Package or Shanghai 2024 Dust II Souvenir Package or Austin 2025 Dust II Souvenir Package or Austin 2025 Dust II Souvenir Highlight Package or Budapest 2025 Dust II Souvenir Package or Budapest 2025 Dust II Souvenir Highlight Package. Concentrating every input in one case is what keeps your odds at 33.33% — mixing cases splits the probability across both pools and lowers your chance at MAC-10 | Case Hardened specifically.
P250 | Black & Tan
Nova | Quick Sand
G3SG1 | New Roots
Galil AR | Amber Fade
Galil AR | Amber Fade
Nova | Quick Sand
P250 | Black & Tan
P250 | Black & Tan
G3SG1 | New Roots
G3SG1 | New Roots
Galil AR | Amber Fade
G3SG1 | New Roots7 further eligible inputs are available — open the reverse trade-up finder to price a full contract against your own inventory.
What else this contract can land on
A contract from Stockholm 2021 Dust II Souvenir Package / Antwerp 2022 Dust II Souvenir Package / Rio 2022 Dust II Souvenir Package / Shanghai 2024 Dust II Souvenir Package / Austin 2025 Dust II Souvenir Package / Austin 2025 Dust II Souvenir Highlight Package / Budapest 2025 Dust II Souvenir Package / Budapest 2025 Dust II Souvenir Highlight Package draws uniformly from every Restricted SMG skin in the pool, so MAC-10 | Case Hardened is one of 3 equally likely results. These are the other 2.
| Outcome | Odds | Cheapest price |
|---|---|---|
| M4A4 | Red DDPAT | 33.33% | $30.07 |
| MAC-10 | Case Hardenedyour target | 33.33% | $25.03 |
| USP-S | Orange Anolis | 33.33% | $24.22 |
Input float for each exterior
CS2 normalises float across a trade-up: each input’s float becomes a 0–1 position inside its own range, those are averaged, and the average is applied to MAC-10 | Case Hardened’s range of 0.00–1.00. To land a given exterior, your ten inputs must average the normalised float below.
| Target exterior | Output float | Required avg. input float |
|---|---|---|
| Factory New | 0.0350 | 0.0350 |
| Minimal Wear | 0.1100 | 0.1100 |
| Field-Tested | 0.2650 | 0.2650 |
| Well-Worn | 0.4150 | 0.4150 |
| Battle-Scarred | 0.7250 | 0.7250 |
“Not reachable” means MAC-10 | Case Hardened’s own float range never enters that exterior band — no combination of inputs can produce it.
What MAC-10 | Case Hardened is worth right now
Worth comparing against the contract cost above before you commit: buying the skin outright is frequently cheaper than rolling for it.
| Exterior | Price | vs. contract cost |
|---|---|---|
| Field-Tested | $25.03 | −$42.17 |
| Well-Worn | $26.05 | −$41.15 |
| Battle-Scarred | $26.91 | −$40.29 |
| Minimal Wear | $28.25 | −$38.95 |
| Factory New | $48.14 | −$19.06 |
Build this contract
Price a full ten-slot contract against live inputs, set your own float values, and see the outcome odds update as you go.