How to Trade Up to M4A1-S | Dark Water
M4A1-S | Dark Water drops from CS:GO Weapon Case, so any contract that can produce it needs 10 Mil-Spec skins from that same case. Here is what the contract costs, what else it can land on, and the input float you need for each exterior.
- Odds per contract
- 33.33% 1 in 3
- Contract cost from
- $111.20 10 × cheapest input
- Expected value
- $64.60 mean of the outcome pool
- Margin
- -41.9% $-46.60 per contract
Buying is cheaper than rolling. A Field-Tested M4A1-S | Dark Water costs $57.11 outright, against $111.20 for a contract with a 33.33% chance of producing one. Trade up for the process, not the value.
The contract
10 inputs, all Mil-Spec, all from CS:GO Weapon Case. Concentrating every input in one case is what keeps your odds at 33.33% — mixing cases splits the probability across both pools and lowers your chance at M4A1-S | Dark Water specifically.
What else this contract can land on
A contract from CS:GO Weapon Case draws uniformly from every Restricted Rifle skin in the pool, so M4A1-S | Dark Water is one of 3 equally likely results. These are the other 2.
| Outcome | Odds | Cheapest price |
|---|---|---|
| Glock-18 | Dragon Tattoo | 33.33% | $78.33 |
| USP-S | Dark Water | 33.33% | $58.35 |
| M4A1-S | Dark Wateryour target | 33.33% | $57.11 |
Input float for each exterior
CS2 normalises float across a trade-up: each input’s float becomes a 0–1 position inside its own range, those are averaged, and the average is applied to M4A1-S | Dark Water’s range of 0.10–0.26. To land a given exterior, your ten inputs must average the normalised float below.
| Target exterior | Output float | Required avg. input float |
|---|---|---|
| Factory New | — | not reachable |
| Minimal Wear | 0.1250 | 0.1562 |
| Field-Tested | 0.2050 | 0.6563 |
| Well-Worn | — | not reachable |
| Battle-Scarred | — | not reachable |
“Not reachable” means M4A1-S | Dark Water’s own float range never enters that exterior band — no combination of inputs can produce it.
What M4A1-S | Dark Water is worth right now
Worth comparing against the contract cost above before you commit: buying the skin outright is frequently cheaper than rolling for it.
| Exterior | Price | vs. contract cost |
|---|---|---|
| Field-Tested | $57.11 | −$54.09 |
| Minimal Wear | $65.92 | −$45.28 |
Build this contract
Price a full ten-slot contract against live inputs, set your own float values, and see the outcome odds update as you go.