How to Trade Up to M4A1-S | Dark Water
M4A1-S | Dark Water drops from CS:GO Weapon CaseCS:GO Weapon Case, CS:GO Weapon Case, CS:GO Weapon Case, CS:GO Weapon Case, CS:GO Weapon Case, CS:GO Weapon Case, CS:GO Weapon Case, CS:GO Weapon Case, CS:GO Weapon Case, CS:GO Weapon Case, CS:GO Weapon Case, CS:GO Weapon Case, CS:GO Weapon Case, CS:GO Weapon Case, CS:GO Weapon Case, so any contract that can produce it needs 10 Mil-Spec skins from those same cases. Here is what the contract costs, what else it can land on, and the input float you need for each exterior.
- Odds per contract
- 9.09% 1 in 11
- Contract cost from
- $2550.00 10× cheapest input
- Expected value
- $2897.36 mean of the outcome pool
- Margin
- +13.6% +$347.36 per contract
This contract is EV-positive at floor prices. Ten cheapest inputs cost $2550.00 against an outcome pool averaging $2897.36 — $347.36 per contract. Individual rolls still vary; M4A1-S | Dark Water itself is only 9.09% of them.
The contract
Ten inputs, all Mil-Spec, all from CS:GO Weapon CaseCS:GO Weapon Case or CS:GO Weapon Case or CS:GO Weapon Case or CS:GO Weapon Case or CS:GO Weapon Case or CS:GO Weapon Case or CS:GO Weapon Case or CS:GO Weapon Case or CS:GO Weapon Case or CS:GO Weapon Case or CS:GO Weapon Case or CS:GO Weapon Case or CS:GO Weapon Case or CS:GO Weapon Case or CS:GO Weapon Case. Concentrating every input in one case is what keeps your odds at 9.09% — mixing cases splits the probability across both pools and lowers your chance at M4A1-S | Dark Water specifically.
SCAR-20 | Crimson Web
SCAR-20 | Crimson Web
FAMAS | Hexane
SCAR-20 | Crimson Web
P250 | Hive
P250 | Hive
FAMAS | Hexane
P2000 | Red FragCam
Glock-18 | Blue Fissure
Glock-18 | Blue Fissure
P2000 | Red FragCam
Dual Berettas | Panther12 further eligible inputs are available — open the reverse trade-up calculator to price a full contract against your own inventory.
What else this contract can land on
A contract from CS:GO Weapon CaseCS:GO Weapon Case / CS:GO Weapon Case / CS:GO Weapon Case / CS:GO Weapon Case / CS:GO Weapon Case / CS:GO Weapon Case / CS:GO Weapon Case / CS:GO Weapon Case / CS:GO Weapon Case / CS:GO Weapon Case / CS:GO Weapon Case / CS:GO Weapon Case / CS:GO Weapon Case / CS:GO Weapon Case / CS:GO Weapon Case draws uniformly from every Restricted Rifle skin in the pool, so M4A1-S | Dark Water is one of 11 equally likely results. These are the other 10.
| Outcome | Odds | Cheapest price |
|---|---|---|
| Glock-18 | Dragon Tattoo | 9.09% | $9943.00 |
| USP-S | Dark Water | 9.09% | $6560.00 |
| M4A1-S | Dark Wateryour target | 9.09% | $6345.00 |
| MP9 | Hypnotic | 9.09% | $1830.00 |
| Dual Berettas | Hemoglobin | 9.09% | $1504.00 |
| Five-SeveN | Copper Galaxy | 9.09% | $1225.00 |
| Five-SeveN | Case Hardened | 9.09% | $1036.00 |
| Nova | Graphite | 9.09% | $1005.00 |
| Tec-9 | Titanium Bit | 9.09% | $963.00 |
| Desert Eagle | Heirloom | 9.09% | $862.00 |
| CZ75-Auto | Tread Plate | 9.09% | $598.00 |
Input float for each exterior
CS2 normalises float across a trade-up: each input’s float becomes a 0–1 position inside its own range, those are averaged, and the average is applied to M4A1-S | Dark Water’s range of 0.10–0.26. To land a given exterior, your ten inputs must average the normalised float below.
| Target exterior | Output float | Required avg. input float |
|---|---|---|
| Factory New | — | not reachable |
| Minimal Wear | 0.1250 | 0.1562 |
| Field-Tested | 0.2050 | 0.6563 |
| Well-Worn | — | not reachable |
| Battle-Scarred | — | not reachable |
“Not reachable” means M4A1-S | Dark Water’s own float range never enters that exterior band — no combination of inputs can produce it.
What M4A1-S | Dark Water is worth right now
Worth comparing against the contract cost above before you commit: buying the skin outright is frequently cheaper than rolling for it.
| Exterior | Price | vs. contract cost |
|---|---|---|
| Field-Tested | $6345.00 | +$3795.00 |
| Minimal Wear | $8340.00 | +$5790.00 |
Build this contract
Price a full ten-slot contract against live inputs, set your own float values, and see the outcome odds update as you go.