How to Trade Up to Galil AR | CAUTION!
Galil AR | CAUTION! drops from Stockholm 2021 Vertigo Souvenir Package, Antwerp 2022 Vertigo Souvenir Package, Rio 2022 Vertigo Souvenir Package, Paris 2023 Vertigo Souvenir Package, Copenhagen 2024 Vertigo Souvenir Package, Shanghai 2024 Vertigo Souvenir Package, so any contract that can produce it needs 10 Mil-Spec skins from those same cases. Here is what the contract costs, what else it can land on, and the input float you need for each exterior.
- Odds per contract
- 33.33% 1 in 3
- Contract cost from
- $43.40 10 × cheapest input
- Expected value
- $36.82 mean of the outcome pool
- Margin
- -15.2% $-6.58 per contract
This contract is EV-negative. The cheapest ten inputs cost $43.40 and the outcome pool averages $36.82, so it loses $6.58 per contract on average even before you account for hitting the wrong skin.
The contract
10 inputs, all Mil-Spec, all from Stockholm 2021 Vertigo Souvenir Package or Antwerp 2022 Vertigo Souvenir Package or Rio 2022 Vertigo Souvenir Package or Paris 2023 Vertigo Souvenir Package or Copenhagen 2024 Vertigo Souvenir Package or Shanghai 2024 Vertigo Souvenir Package. Concentrating every input in one case is what keeps your odds at 33.33% — mixing cases splits the probability across both pools and lowers your chance at Galil AR | CAUTION! specifically.
P90 | Schematic
Nova | Interlock
Nova | Interlock
Negev | Infrastructure
Negev | Infrastructure
P90 | Schematic
Negev | Infrastructure
P90 | Schematic
Nova | Interlock
AK-47 | Green Laminate
AK-47 | Green Laminate
P90 | Schematic7 further eligible inputs are available — open the reverse trade-up finder to price a full contract against your own inventory.
What else this contract can land on
A contract from Stockholm 2021 Vertigo Souvenir Package / Antwerp 2022 Vertigo Souvenir Package / Rio 2022 Vertigo Souvenir Package / Paris 2023 Vertigo Souvenir Package / Copenhagen 2024 Vertigo Souvenir Package / Shanghai 2024 Vertigo Souvenir Package draws uniformly from every Restricted Rifle skin in the pool, so Galil AR | CAUTION! is one of 3 equally likely results. These are the other 2.
| Outcome | Odds | Cheapest price |
|---|---|---|
| Galil AR | CAUTION!your target | 33.33% | $43.80 |
| P250 | Digital Architect | 33.33% | $38.66 |
| MAG-7 | Prism Terrace | 33.33% | $28.01 |
Input float for each exterior
CS2 normalises float across a trade-up: each input’s float becomes a 0–1 position inside its own range, those are averaged, and the average is applied to Galil AR | CAUTION!’s range of 0.00–0.55. To land a given exterior, your ten inputs must average the normalised float below.
| Target exterior | Output float | Required avg. input float |
|---|---|---|
| Factory New | 0.0350 | 0.0636 |
| Minimal Wear | 0.1100 | 0.2000 |
| Field-Tested | 0.2650 | 0.4818 |
| Well-Worn | 0.4150 | 0.7545 |
| Battle-Scarred | 0.5000 | 0.9091 |
“Not reachable” means Galil AR | CAUTION!’s own float range never enters that exterior band — no combination of inputs can produce it.
What Galil AR | CAUTION! is worth right now
Worth comparing against the contract cost above before you commit: buying the skin outright is frequently cheaper than rolling for it.
| Exterior | Price | vs. contract cost |
|---|---|---|
| Field-Tested | $43.80 | +$0.40 |
| Minimal Wear | $54.51 | +$11.11 |
| Factory New | $65.21 | +$21.81 |
| Well-Worn | $68.21 | +$24.81 |
| Battle-Scarred | $269.95 | +$226.55 |
Build this contract
Price a full ten-slot contract against live inputs, set your own float values, and see the outcome odds update as you go.