How to Trade Up to Galil AR | Amber Fade
Galil AR | Amber Fade drops from Stockholm 2021 Dust II Souvenir Package, Antwerp 2022 Dust II Souvenir Package, Rio 2022 Dust II Souvenir Package, so any contract that can produce it needs 10 Industrial Grade skins from those same cases. Here is what the contract costs, what else it can land on, and the input float you need for each exterior.
- Odds per contract
- 25% 1 in 4
- Contract cost from
- $870.00 10× cheapest input
- Expected value
- $800.50 mean of the outcome pool
- Margin
- -8% $-69.50 per contract
This contract is EV-negative. The cheapest ten inputs cost $870.00 and the outcome pool averages $800.50, so it loses $69.50 per contract on average even before you account for hitting the wrong skin.
The contract
Ten inputs, all Industrial Grade, all from Stockholm 2021 Dust II Souvenir Package or Antwerp 2022 Dust II Souvenir Package or Rio 2022 Dust II Souvenir Package. Concentrating every input in one case is what keeps your odds at 25% — mixing cases splits the probability across both pools and lowers your chance at Galil AR | Amber Fade specifically.
MP9 | Old Roots
Five-SeveN | Withered Vine
AUG | Spalted Wood
M249 | Midnight Palm
M249 | Midnight Palm
Five-SeveN | Withered Vine
MP9 | Old Roots
M249 | Midnight Palm
MP9 | Old Roots
M249 | Midnight Palm
Five-SeveN | Withered Vine
AUG | Spalted Wood8 further eligible inputs are available — open the reverse trade-up calculator to price a full contract against your own inventory.
What else this contract can land on
A contract from Stockholm 2021 Dust II Souvenir Package / Antwerp 2022 Dust II Souvenir Package / Rio 2022 Dust II Souvenir Package draws uniformly from every Mil-Spec Grade Rifle skin in the pool, so Galil AR | Amber Fade is one of 4 equally likely results. These are the other 3.
| Outcome | Odds | Cheapest price |
|---|---|---|
| Galil AR | Amber Fadeyour target | 25% | $974.00 |
| P250 | Black & Tan | 25% | $753.00 |
| G3SG1 | New Roots | 25% | $753.00 |
| Nova | Quick Sand | 25% | $722.00 |
Input float for each exterior
CS2 normalises float across a trade-up: each input’s float becomes a 0–1 position inside its own range, those are averaged, and the average is applied to Galil AR | Amber Fade’s range of 0.00–0.40. To land a given exterior, your ten inputs must average the normalised float below.
| Target exterior | Output float | Required avg. input float |
|---|---|---|
| Factory New | 0.0350 | 0.0875 |
| Minimal Wear | 0.1100 | 0.2750 |
| Field-Tested | 0.2650 | 0.6625 |
| Well-Worn | 0.3900 | 0.9750 |
| Battle-Scarred | — | not reachable |
“Not reachable” means Galil AR | Amber Fade’s own float range never enters that exterior band — no combination of inputs can produce it.
What Galil AR | Amber Fade is worth right now
Worth comparing against the contract cost above before you commit: buying the skin outright is frequently cheaper than rolling for it.
| Exterior | Price | vs. contract cost |
|---|---|---|
| Minimal Wear | $974.00 | +$104.00 |
| Field-Tested | $1198.00 | +$328.00 |
| Factory New | $3141.00 | +$2271.00 |
| Well-Worn | $5151.00 | +$4281.00 |
Build this contract
Price a full ten-slot contract against live inputs, set your own float values, and see the outcome odds update as you go.