How to Trade Up to Desert Eagle | Kumicho Dragon
Desert Eagle | Kumicho Dragon drops from Operation Wildfire Case, so any contract that can produce it needs 10 Restricted skins from that same case. Here is what the contract costs, what else it can land on, and the input float you need for each exterior.
- Odds per contract
- 33.33% 1 in 3
- Contract cost from
- $15.30 10 × cheapest input
- Expected value
- $11.85 mean of the outcome pool
- Margin
- -22.5% $-3.45 per contract
This contract is EV-negative. The cheapest ten inputs cost $15.30 and the outcome pool averages $11.85, so it loses $3.45 per contract on average even before you account for hitting the wrong skin.
The contract
10 inputs, all Restricted, all from Operation Wildfire Case. Concentrating every input in one case is what keeps your odds at 33.33% — mixing cases splits the probability across both pools and lowers your chance at Desert Eagle | Kumicho Dragon specifically.
MAG-7 | Praetorian
Five-SeveN | Triumvirate
MAG-7 | Praetorian
MP7 | Impire
Glock-18 | Royal Legion
Glock-18 | Royal Legion
Five-SeveN | Triumvirate
MAG-7 | Praetorian
Five-SeveN | Triumvirate
MP7 | Impire
Glock-18 | Royal Legion
FAMAS | Valence11 further eligible inputs are available — open the reverse trade-up finder to price a full contract against your own inventory.
What else this contract can land on
A contract from Operation Wildfire Case draws uniformly from every Classified Pistol skin in the pool, so Desert Eagle | Kumicho Dragon is one of 3 equally likely results. These are the other 2.
| Outcome | Odds | Cheapest price |
|---|---|---|
| Desert Eagle | Kumicho Dragonyour target | 33.33% | $16.03 |
| Nova | Hyper Beast | 33.33% | $9.93 |
| AWP | Elite Build | 33.33% | $9.60 |
Input float for each exterior
CS2 normalises float across a trade-up: each input’s float becomes a 0–1 position inside its own range, those are averaged, and the average is applied to Desert Eagle | Kumicho Dragon’s range of 0.00–0.76. To land a given exterior, your ten inputs must average the normalised float below.
| Target exterior | Output float | Required avg. input float |
|---|---|---|
| Factory New | 0.0350 | 0.0461 |
| Minimal Wear | 0.1100 | 0.1447 |
| Field-Tested | 0.2650 | 0.3487 |
| Well-Worn | 0.4150 | 0.5461 |
| Battle-Scarred | 0.6050 | 0.7961 |
“Not reachable” means Desert Eagle | Kumicho Dragon’s own float range never enters that exterior band — no combination of inputs can produce it.
What Desert Eagle | Kumicho Dragon is worth right now
Worth comparing against the contract cost above before you commit: buying the skin outright is frequently cheaper than rolling for it.
| Exterior | Price | vs. contract cost |
|---|---|---|
| Field-Tested | $16.03 | +$0.73 |
| Battle-Scarred | $16.15 | +$0.85 |
| Well-Worn | $21.03 | +$5.73 |
| Minimal Wear | $26.02 | +$10.72 |
| Factory New | $57.87 | +$42.57 |
Build this contract
Price a full ten-slot contract against live inputs, set your own float values, and see the outcome odds update as you go.