How to Trade Up to AWP | Wildfire
AWP | Wildfire drops from CS20 CaseCS20 Case, CS20 Case, CS20 Case, CS20 Case, CS20 Case, CS20 Case, CS20 Case, CS20 Case, CS20 Case, CS20 Case, CS20 Case, CS20 Case, CS20 Case, CS20 Case, CS20 Case, so any contract that can produce it needs 10 Classified skins from those same cases. Here is what the contract costs, what else it can land on, and the input float you need for each exterior.
- Odds per contract
- 50% 1 in 2
- Contract cost from
- $3760.00 10× cheapest input
- Expected value
- $3272.00 mean of the outcome pool
- Margin
- -13% $-488.00 per contract
Buying is cheaper than rolling. A Battle-Scarred AWP | Wildfire costs $3653.00 outright, against $3760.00 for a contract with a 50% chance of producing one. Trade up for the process, not the value.
The contract
Ten inputs, all Classified, all from CS20 CaseCS20 Case or CS20 Case or CS20 Case or CS20 Case or CS20 Case or CS20 Case or CS20 Case or CS20 Case or CS20 Case or CS20 Case or CS20 Case or CS20 Case or CS20 Case or CS20 Case or CS20 Case. Concentrating every input in one case is what keeps your odds at 50% — mixing cases splits the probability across both pools and lowers your chance at AWP | Wildfire specifically.
P90 | Nostalgia
P90 | Nostalgia
AUG | Death by Puppy
P90 | Nostalgia
AUG | Death by Puppy
P90 | Nostalgia
MP9 | Hydra
MP9 | Hydra
MP9 | Hydra
AUG | Death by Puppy
P90 | Nostalgia
AUG | Death by Puppy2 further eligible inputs are available — open the reverse trade-up calculator to price a full contract against your own inventory.
What else this contract can land on
A contract from CS20 CaseCS20 Case / CS20 Case / CS20 Case / CS20 Case / CS20 Case / CS20 Case / CS20 Case / CS20 Case / CS20 Case / CS20 Case / CS20 Case / CS20 Case / CS20 Case / CS20 Case / CS20 Case draws uniformly from every Covert Sniper Rifle skin in the pool, so AWP | Wildfire is one of 2 equally likely results. These are the other 1.
| Outcome | Odds | Cheapest price |
|---|---|---|
| AWP | Wildfireyour target | 50% | $3653.00 |
| FAMAS | Commemoration | 50% | $2891.00 |
Input float for each exterior
CS2 normalises float across a trade-up: each input’s float becomes a 0–1 position inside its own range, those are averaged, and the average is applied to AWP | Wildfire’s range of 0.01–0.70. To land a given exterior, your ten inputs must average the normalised float below.
| Target exterior | Output float | Required avg. input float |
|---|---|---|
| Factory New | 0.0400 | 0.0435 |
| Minimal Wear | 0.1100 | 0.1449 |
| Field-Tested | 0.2650 | 0.3696 |
| Well-Worn | 0.4150 | 0.5870 |
| Battle-Scarred | 0.5750 | 0.8188 |
“Not reachable” means AWP | Wildfire’s own float range never enters that exterior band — no combination of inputs can produce it.
What AWP | Wildfire is worth right now
Worth comparing against the contract cost above before you commit: buying the skin outright is frequently cheaper than rolling for it.
| Exterior | Price | vs. contract cost |
|---|---|---|
| Battle-Scarred | $3653.00 | −$107.00 |
| Field-Tested | $4467.00 | +$707.00 |
| Well-Worn | $4532.00 | +$772.00 |
| Minimal Wear | $6931.00 | +$3171.00 |
| Factory New | $15914.00 | +$12154.00 |
Build this contract
Price a full ten-slot contract against live inputs, set your own float values, and see the outcome odds update as you go.