How to Trade Up to AWP | Black Nile
AWP | Black Nile drops from Anubis Collection Package, Paris 2023 Anubis Souvenir Package, Copenhagen 2024 Anubis Souvenir Package, so any contract that can produce it needs 10 Industrial Grade skins from those same cases. Here is what the contract costs, what else it can land on, and the input float you need for each exterior.
- Odds per contract
- 33.33% 1 in 3
- Contract cost from
- $170.00 10× cheapest input
- Expected value
- $177.33 mean of the outcome pool
- Margin
- +4.3% +$7.33 per contract
This contract is EV-positive at floor prices. Ten cheapest inputs cost $170.00 against an outcome pool averaging $177.33 — $7.33 per contract. Individual rolls still vary; AWP | Black Nile itself is only 33.33% of them.
The contract
Ten inputs, all Industrial Grade, all from Anubis Collection Package or Paris 2023 Anubis Souvenir Package or Copenhagen 2024 Anubis Souvenir Package. Concentrating every input in one case is what keeps your odds at 33.33% — mixing cases splits the probability across both pools and lowers your chance at AWP | Black Nile specifically.
SSG 08 | Azure Glyph
USP-S | Desert Tactical
USP-S | Desert Tactical
MAC-10 | Echoing Sands
MAC-10 | Echoing Sands
SSG 08 | Azure Glyph
USP-S | Desert Tactical
SSG 08 | Azure Glyph
MAC-10 | Echoing Sands
M4A1-S | Mud-Spec
M4A1-S | Mud-Spec
M4A1-S | Mud-Spec8 further eligible inputs are available — open the reverse trade-up calculator to price a full contract against your own inventory.
What else this contract can land on
A contract from Anubis Collection Package / Paris 2023 Anubis Souvenir Package / Copenhagen 2024 Anubis Souvenir Package draws uniformly from every Mil-Spec Grade Sniper Rifle skin in the pool, so AWP | Black Nile is one of 3 equally likely results. These are the other 2.
| Outcome | Odds | Cheapest price |
|---|---|---|
| AWP | Black Nileyour target | 33.33% | $270.00 |
| AK-47 | Steel Delta | 33.33% | $169.00 |
| MAG-7 | Copper Coated | 33.33% | $93.00 |
Input float for each exterior
CS2 normalises float across a trade-up: each input’s float becomes a 0–1 position inside its own range, those are averaged, and the average is applied to AWP | Black Nile’s range of 0.00–1.00. To land a given exterior, your ten inputs must average the normalised float below.
| Target exterior | Output float | Required avg. input float |
|---|---|---|
| Factory New | 0.0350 | 0.0350 |
| Minimal Wear | 0.1100 | 0.1100 |
| Field-Tested | 0.2650 | 0.2650 |
| Well-Worn | 0.4150 | 0.4150 |
| Battle-Scarred | 0.7250 | 0.7250 |
“Not reachable” means AWP | Black Nile’s own float range never enters that exterior band — no combination of inputs can produce it.
What AWP | Black Nile is worth right now
Worth comparing against the contract cost above before you commit: buying the skin outright is frequently cheaper than rolling for it.
| Exterior | Price | vs. contract cost |
|---|---|---|
| Field-Tested | $270.00 | +$100.00 |
| Well-Worn | $298.00 | +$128.00 |
| Battle-Scarred | $305.00 | +$135.00 |
| Minimal Wear | $454.00 | +$284.00 |
| Factory New | $2565.00 | +$2395.00 |
Build this contract
Price a full ten-slot contract against live inputs, set your own float values, and see the outcome odds update as you go.