How to Trade Up to AWP | Acheron
AWP | Acheron drops from London 2018 Nuke Souvenir Package, Katowice 2019 Nuke Souvenir Package, Berlin 2019 Nuke Souvenir Package, Stockholm 2021 Nuke Souvenir Package, Antwerp 2022 Nuke Souvenir Package, Rio 2022 Nuke Souvenir Package, Paris 2023 Nuke Souvenir Package, Copenhagen 2024 Nuke Souvenir Package, so any contract that can produce it needs 10 Industrial Grade skins from those same cases. Here is what the contract costs, what else it can land on, and the input float you need for each exterior.
- Odds per contract
- 25% 1 in 4
- Contract cost from
- $70.00 10× cheapest input
- Expected value
- $31.00 mean of the outcome pool
- Margin
- -55.7% $-39.00 per contract
This contract is EV-negative. The cheapest ten inputs cost $70.00 and the outcome pool averages $31.00, so it loses $39.00 per contract on average even before you account for hitting the wrong skin.
The contract
Ten inputs, all Industrial Grade, all from London 2018 Nuke Souvenir Package or Katowice 2019 Nuke Souvenir Package or Berlin 2019 Nuke Souvenir Package or Stockholm 2021 Nuke Souvenir Package or Antwerp 2022 Nuke Souvenir Package or Rio 2022 Nuke Souvenir Package or Paris 2023 Nuke Souvenir Package or Copenhagen 2024 Nuke Souvenir Package. Concentrating every input in one case is what keeps your odds at 25% — mixing cases splits the probability across both pools and lowers your chance at AWP | Acheron specifically.
MP7 | Motherboard
M4A4 | Mainframe
Galil AR | Cold Fusion
M4A4 | Mainframe
Negev | Bulkhead
M4A4 | Mainframe
M4A4 | Mainframe
Negev | Bulkhead
MP7 | Motherboard
MP7 | Motherboard
Galil AR | Cold Fusion
MP7 | Motherboard8 further eligible inputs are available — open the reverse trade-up calculator to price a full contract against your own inventory.
What else this contract can land on
A contract from London 2018 Nuke Souvenir Package / Katowice 2019 Nuke Souvenir Package / Berlin 2019 Nuke Souvenir Package / Stockholm 2021 Nuke Souvenir Package / Antwerp 2022 Nuke Souvenir Package / Rio 2022 Nuke Souvenir Package / Paris 2023 Nuke Souvenir Package / Copenhagen 2024 Nuke Souvenir Package draws uniformly from every Mil-Spec Grade Sniper Rifle skin in the pool, so AWP | Acheron is one of 4 equally likely results. These are the other 3.
| Outcome | Odds | Cheapest price |
|---|---|---|
| AWP | Acheronyour target | 25% | $73.00 |
| P250 | Exchanger | 25% | $18.00 |
| MP5-SD | Co-Processor | 25% | $17.00 |
| P90 | Facility Negative | 25% | $16.00 |
Input float for each exterior
CS2 normalises float across a trade-up: each input’s float becomes a 0–1 position inside its own range, those are averaged, and the average is applied to AWP | Acheron’s range of 0.00–0.83. To land a given exterior, your ten inputs must average the normalised float below.
| Target exterior | Output float | Required avg. input float |
|---|---|---|
| Factory New | 0.0350 | 0.0422 |
| Minimal Wear | 0.1100 | 0.1325 |
| Field-Tested | 0.2650 | 0.3193 |
| Well-Worn | 0.4150 | 0.5000 |
| Battle-Scarred | 0.6400 | 0.7711 |
“Not reachable” means AWP | Acheron’s own float range never enters that exterior band — no combination of inputs can produce it.
What AWP | Acheron is worth right now
Worth comparing against the contract cost above before you commit: buying the skin outright is frequently cheaper than rolling for it.
| Exterior | Price | vs. contract cost |
|---|---|---|
| Battle-Scarred | $73.00 | +$3.00 |
| Field-Tested | $85.00 | +$15.00 |
| Well-Worn | $109.00 | +$39.00 |
| Minimal Wear | $200.00 | +$130.00 |
| Factory New | $1422.00 | +$1352.00 |
Build this contract
Price a full ten-slot contract against live inputs, set your own float values, and see the outcome odds update as you go.