📈 How Trade-Up Contracts Work
A trade-up contract takes 10 skins of the same rarity and produces one skin of the next rarity up. All 10 inputs must be the same grade (e.g. Mil-Spec), and the output is randomly selected from the possible next-tier skins in the collections your inputs come from.
Covert is not the end of the ladder any more. Since the October 2025 update, 5 Covert skins — not 10 — can be exchanged for one knife or one pair of gloves from a collection of one of the items provided, and 5 StatTrak™ Coverts return a StatTrak™ knife. It is the one rung that takes five inputs instead of ten.
StatTrak and non-StatTrak cannot be mixed — a StatTrak trade-up needs 10 StatTrak inputs and yields a StatTrak output. Souvenir skins, once banned from trade-ups entirely, can be used alongside normal skins since the May 2026 update: a souvenir input loses all of its souvenir attributes (gold stickers and match details included) and counts as one rarity higher than the rest of the items in the contract. The output is always a normal skin — a trade-up can never produce a souvenir.
📊 Key Facts at a Glance
| Detail | Info |
|---|---|
| Inputs | 10 same-rarity skins — or 5 Coverts for the ★ knife/glove contract |
| Output | 1 skin, next rarity up; 5 Coverts return a knife or gloves |
| Float | Average of inputs, scaled |
| StatTrak | No mixing allowed |
| Souvenir | Usable since May 2026 — attributes stripped, counts one rarity higher |
| Risk | Often negative EV |
🧮 Output Float & Odds
The output float is the average of your 10 input floats, scaled into the output skin's float range. Lower-float inputs push the output toward Factory New, which is why float-hunters use low-float inputs to hit valuable clean outputs.
The odds of each possible output are weighted by how many of your inputs come from each collection. Using all 10 inputs from a single collection guarantees an output from that collection's next tier.
| Rule | Detail |
|---|---|
| Inputs | 10 skins, same rarity |
| Output | 1 skin, next rarity up |
| Output float | Average of inputs, scaled to output range |
| Odds | Weighted by collection share of inputs |
| StatTrak | All-or-nothing (no mixing) |
🔬 A Worked Example
Say you use 10 low-float Mil-Spec skins all from one collection. Because all inputs share a collection, the output is guaranteed to be a Restricted skin from that collection's pool. If that pool has, say, four possible outputs, you have a 25% chance at each (adjusting for how many are actually eligible).
If the inputs average 0.06 float, the output lands near the bottom of its float range — potentially Factory New, which can be worth far more than a worn copy. Mixing collections spreads the odds across more outputs and dilutes control, so single-collection trade-ups are the standard for targeting a specific result.
💰 When Are Trade-Ups Profitable?
- Target collections where the next-tier skins are worth more than 10x the input cost.
- Use low-float inputs to push toward Factory New outputs when FN carries a big premium.
- Prefer single-collection trade-ups to guarantee the output pool.
- Beware: many trade-ups are negative expected value once you account for less desirable outputs.
Always calculate expected value against live prices before committing skins — model every possible output, weight by its odds, and compare to your total input cost.
🔍 Compare Prices Across 13+ Marketplaces
Don't overpay — check real-time prices for every item in this guide on SteamAnalyst. We aggregate pricing from Buff163, Skinport, CSFloat, DMarket, Steam Market, and more so you always get the best deal.
❓ FAQ
How is trade-up output float calculated?
It is the average float of your 10 inputs, mapped into the output skin's float range. Lower input floats produce cleaner (lower-float) outputs.
Can I mix StatTrak and normal skins in a trade-up?
No. A trade-up must be all StatTrak or all non-StatTrak, and the output matches. Souvenir skins can be mixed with normal skins since the May 2026 update — they lose their souvenir attributes and count as one rarity higher than the rest of the inputs.
Can a trade-up produce a souvenir skin?
No. Souvenir skins used as inputs lose their souvenir attributes, and the output is always a normal (or StatTrak) skin. Souvenirs only come from tournament Souvenir Packages or the Souvenir-O-Matic crafting feature.
Are trade-ups profitable?
Sometimes, but many are negative expected value. Profit requires targeting collections where a clean next-tier output is worth well over 10x your input cost — always model the EV first.
How do I guarantee a specific output collection?
Use all 10 inputs from the same collection. That forces the output to come from that collection's next-tier pool, removing cross-collection randomness.
Can you trade up to a knife or gloves?
Yes, since the October 2025 update. The standard ladder still goes one rarity up at a time to Covert, using 10 inputs — but Covert is no longer the end of it: 5 Covert skins can be exchanged for one knife or one pair of gloves, drawn from a collection of one of the items you put in. 5 StatTrak™ Coverts return a StatTrak™ knife. Put all 5 in from one collection and the result can only come from that collection's ★ pool.
➡️ Related Guides