📈 How Trade-Up Contracts Work
A trade-up contract takes 10 skins of the same rarity and produces one skin of the next rarity up. All 10 inputs must be the same grade (e.g. Mil-Spec), and the output is randomly selected from the possible next-tier skins in the collections your inputs come from.
StatTrak and non-StatTrak cannot be mixed — a StatTrak trade-up needs 10 StatTrak inputs and yields a StatTrak output. Souvenir skins cannot be used.
📊 Key Facts at a Glance
| Detail | Info |
|---|---|
| Inputs | 10 same-rarity skins |
| Output | 1 skin, next rarity up |
| Float | Average of inputs, scaled |
| StatTrak | No mixing allowed |
| Souvenir | Not eligible |
| Risk | Often negative EV |
🧮 Output Float & Odds
The output float is the average of your 10 input floats, scaled into the output skin's float range. Lower-float inputs push the output toward Factory New, which is why float-hunters use low-float inputs to hit valuable clean outputs.
The odds of each possible output are weighted by how many of your inputs come from each collection. Using all 10 inputs from a single collection guarantees an output from that collection's next tier.
| Rule | Detail |
|---|---|
| Inputs | 10 skins, same rarity |
| Output | 1 skin, next rarity up |
| Output float | Average of inputs, scaled to output range |
| Odds | Weighted by collection share of inputs |
| StatTrak | All-or-nothing (no mixing) |
🔬 A Worked Example
Say you use 10 low-float Mil-Spec skins all from one collection. Because all inputs share a collection, the output is guaranteed to be a Restricted skin from that collection's pool. If that pool has, say, four possible outputs, you have a 25% chance at each (adjusting for how many are actually eligible).
If the inputs average 0.06 float, the output lands near the bottom of its float range — potentially Factory New, which can be worth far more than a worn copy. Mixing collections spreads the odds across more outputs and dilutes control, so single-collection trade-ups are the standard for targeting a specific result.
💰 When Are Trade-Ups Profitable?
- Target collections where the next-tier skins are worth more than 10x the input cost.
- Use low-float inputs to push toward Factory New outputs when FN carries a big premium.
- Prefer single-collection trade-ups to guarantee the output pool.
- Beware: many trade-ups are negative expected value once you account for less desirable outputs.
Always calculate expected value against live prices before committing skins — model every possible output, weight by its odds, and compare to your total input cost.
🔍 Compare Prices Across 13+ Marketplaces
Don't overpay — check real-time prices for every item in this guide on SteamAnalyst. We aggregate pricing from Buff163, Skinport, CSFloat, DMarket, Steam Market, and more so you always get the best deal.
❓ FAQ
How is trade-up output float calculated?
It is the average float of your 10 inputs, mapped into the output skin's float range. Lower input floats produce cleaner (lower-float) outputs.
Can I mix StatTrak and normal skins in a trade-up?
No. A trade-up must be all StatTrak or all non-StatTrak, and the output matches. Souvenir skins cannot be used at all.
Are trade-ups profitable?
Sometimes, but many are negative expected value. Profit requires targeting collections where a clean next-tier output is worth well over 10x your input cost — always model the EV first.
How do I guarantee a specific output collection?
Use all 10 inputs from the same collection. That forces the output to come from that collection's next-tier pool, removing cross-collection randomness.
Can you trade up to a knife or Covert?
Trade-ups go one rarity up at a time, up to Covert. You cannot trade up into knives or gloves — those only come from cases.
➡️ Related Guides
