How to Trade Up to XM1014 | VariCamo Blue
XM1014 | VariCamo Blue drops from ESL One Cologne 2014 Overpass Souvenir Package, DreamHack 2014 Overpass Souvenir Package, ESL One Katowice 2015 Overpass Souvenir Package, ESL One Cologne 2015 Overpass Souvenir Package, DreamHack Cluj-Napoca 2015 Overpass Souvenir Package, MLG Columbus 2016 Overpass Souvenir Package, Cologne 2016 Overpass Souvenir Package, Atlanta 2017 Overpass Souvenir Package, Krakow 2017 Overpass Souvenir Package, Boston 2018 Overpass Souvenir Package, London 2018 Overpass Souvenir Package, Katowice 2019 Overpass Souve, so any contract that can produce it needs 10 Industrial Grade skins from those same cases. Here is what the contract costs, what else it can land on, and the input float you need for each exterior.
- Odds per contract
- 33.33% 1 in 3
- Contract cost from
- $1360.00 10× cheapest input
- Expected value
- $768.67 mean of the outcome pool
- Margin
- -43.5% $-591.33 per contract
Buying is cheaper than rolling. A Field-Tested XM1014 | VariCamo Blue costs $726.00 outright, against $1360.00 for a contract with a 33.33% chance of producing one. Trade up for the process, not the value.
The contract
Ten inputs, all Industrial Grade, all from ESL One Cologne 2014 Overpass Souvenir Package or DreamHack 2014 Overpass Souvenir Package or ESL One Katowice 2015 Overpass Souvenir Package or ESL One Cologne 2015 Overpass Souvenir Package or DreamHack Cluj-Napoca 2015 Overpass Souvenir Package or MLG Columbus 2016 Overpass Souvenir Package or Cologne 2016 Overpass Souvenir Package or Atlanta 2017 Overpass Souvenir Package or Krakow 2017 Overpass Souvenir Package or Boston 2018 Overpass Souvenir Package or London 2018 Overpass Souvenir Package or Katowice 2019 Overpass Souve. Concentrating every input in one case is what keeps your odds at 33.33% — mixing cases splits the probability across both pools and lowers your chance at XM1014 | VariCamo Blue specifically.
MP7 | Gunsmoke
Glock-18 | Night
Desert Eagle | Urban DDPAT
Desert Eagle | Urban DDPAT
Glock-18 | Night
P2000 | Grassland
MP7 | Gunsmoke
P2000 | Grassland
Glock-18 | Night
P2000 | Grassland
MP7 | Gunsmoke
Desert Eagle | Urban DDPAT8 further eligible inputs are available — open the reverse trade-up calculator to price a full contract against your own inventory.
What else this contract can land on
A contract from ESL One Cologne 2014 Overpass Souvenir Package / DreamHack 2014 Overpass Souvenir Package / ESL One Katowice 2015 Overpass Souvenir Package / ESL One Cologne 2015 Overpass Souvenir Package / DreamHack Cluj-Napoca 2015 Overpass Souvenir Package / MLG Columbus 2016 Overpass Souvenir Package / Cologne 2016 Overpass Souvenir Package / Atlanta 2017 Overpass Souvenir Package / Krakow 2017 Overpass Souvenir Package / Boston 2018 Overpass Souvenir Package / London 2018 Overpass Souvenir Package / Katowice 2019 Overpass Souve draws uniformly from every Mil-Spec Grade Shotgun skin in the pool, so XM1014 | VariCamo Blue is one of 3 equally likely results. These are the other 2.
| Outcome | Odds | Cheapest price |
|---|---|---|
| SSG 08 | Detour | 33.33% | $1017.00 |
| XM1014 | VariCamo Blueyour target | 33.33% | $726.00 |
| CZ75-Auto | Nitro | 33.33% | $563.00 |
Input float for each exterior
CS2 normalises float across a trade-up: each input’s float becomes a 0–1 position inside its own range, those are averaged, and the average is applied to XM1014 | VariCamo Blue’s range of 0.00–0.50. To land a given exterior, your ten inputs must average the normalised float below.
| Target exterior | Output float | Required avg. input float |
|---|---|---|
| Factory New | 0.0350 | 0.0700 |
| Minimal Wear | 0.1100 | 0.2200 |
| Field-Tested | 0.2650 | 0.5300 |
| Well-Worn | 0.4150 | 0.8300 |
| Battle-Scarred | 0.4750 | 0.9500 |
“Not reachable” means XM1014 | VariCamo Blue’s own float range never enters that exterior band — no combination of inputs can produce it.
What XM1014 | VariCamo Blue is worth right now
Worth comparing against the contract cost above before you commit: buying the skin outright is frequently cheaper than rolling for it.
| Exterior | Price | vs. contract cost |
|---|---|---|
| Field-Tested | $726.00 | −$634.00 |
| Minimal Wear | $791.00 | −$569.00 |
| Factory New | $1108.00 | −$252.00 |
| Well-Worn | $1223.00 | −$137.00 |
| Battle-Scarred | $1787.00 | +$427.00 |
Build this contract
Price a full ten-slot contract against live inputs, set your own float values, and see the outcome odds update as you go.