How to Trade Up to USP-S | Guardian
USP-S | Guardian drops from Operation Phoenix Weapon Case, so any contract that can produce it needs 10 Mil-Spec skins from that same case. Here is what the contract costs, what else it can land on, and the input float you need for each exterior.
- Odds per contract
- 25% 1 in 4
- Contract cost from
- $4.40 10× cheapest input
- Expected value
- $2.15 mean of the outcome pool
- Margin
- -51.1% $-2.25 per contract
Buying is cheaper than rolling. A Field-Tested USP-S | Guardian costs $2.24 outright, against $4.40 for a contract with a 25% chance of producing one. Trade up for the process, not the value.
The contract
10 inputs, all Mil-Spec, all from Operation Phoenix Weapon Case. Concentrating every input in one case is what keeps your odds at 25% — mixing cases splits the probability across both pools and lowers your chance at USP-S | Guardian specifically.
UMP-45 | Corporal
Negev | Terrain
Negev | Terrain
MAG-7 | Heaven Guard
MAG-7 | Heaven Guard
UMP-45 | Corporal
UMP-45 | Corporal
Tec-9 | Sandstorm
Negev | Terrain
Tec-9 | Sandstorm
Tec-9 | Sandstorm
UMP-45 | Corporal5 further eligible inputs are available — open the reverse trade-up calculator to price a full contract against your own inventory.
What else this contract can land on
A contract from Operation Phoenix Weapon Case draws uniformly from every Restricted Pistol skin in the pool, so USP-S | Guardian is one of 4 equally likely results. These are the other 3.
| Outcome | Odds | Cheapest price |
|---|---|---|
| MAC-10 | Heat | 25% | $2.45 |
| USP-S | Guardianyour target | 25% | $2.24 |
| SG 553 | Pulse | 25% | $2.17 |
| FAMAS | Sergeant | 25% | $1.74 |
Input float for each exterior
CS2 normalises float across a trade-up: each input’s float becomes a 0–1 position inside its own range, those are averaged, and the average is applied to USP-S | Guardian’s range of 0.00–0.38. To land a given exterior, your ten inputs must average the normalised float below.
| Target exterior | Output float | Required avg. input float |
|---|---|---|
| Factory New | 0.0350 | 0.0921 |
| Minimal Wear | 0.1100 | 0.2895 |
| Field-Tested | 0.2650 | 0.6974 |
| Well-Worn | — | not reachable |
| Battle-Scarred | — | not reachable |
“Not reachable” means USP-S | Guardian’s own float range never enters that exterior band — no combination of inputs can produce it.
What USP-S | Guardian is worth right now
Worth comparing against the contract cost above before you commit: buying the skin outright is frequently cheaper than rolling for it.
| Exterior | Price | vs. contract cost |
|---|---|---|
| Field-Tested | $2.24 | −$2.16 |
| Minimal Wear | $2.81 | −$1.59 |
| Factory New | $7.52 | +$3.12 |
Build this contract
Price a full ten-slot contract against live inputs, set your own float values, and see the outcome odds update as you go.