How to Trade Up to UMP-45 | Mechanism
UMP-45 | Mechanism drops from Stockholm 2021 Vertigo Souvenir Package, Antwerp 2022 Vertigo Souvenir Package, Rio 2022 Vertigo Souvenir Package, Paris 2023 Vertigo Souvenir Package, Copenhagen 2024 Vertigo Souvenir Package, Shanghai 2024 Vertigo Souvenir Package, so any contract that can produce it needs 10 Consumer Grade skins from those same cases. Here is what the contract costs, what else it can land on, and the input float you need for each exterior.
- Odds per contract
- 25% 1 in 4
- Contract cost from
- $5.20 10× cheapest input
- Expected value
- $2.08 mean of the outcome pool
- Margin
- -60% $-3.12 per contract
Buying is cheaper than rolling. A Field-Tested UMP-45 | Mechanism costs $1.53 outright, against $5.20 for a contract with a 25% chance of producing one. Trade up for the process, not the value.
The contract
10 inputs, all Consumer Grade, all from Stockholm 2021 Vertigo Souvenir Package or Antwerp 2022 Vertigo Souvenir Package or Rio 2022 Vertigo Souvenir Package or Paris 2023 Vertigo Souvenir Package or Copenhagen 2024 Vertigo Souvenir Package or Shanghai 2024 Vertigo Souvenir Package. Concentrating every input in one case is what keeps your odds at 25% — mixing cases splits the probability across both pools and lowers your chance at UMP-45 | Mechanism specifically.
XM1014 | Blue Tire
Dual Berettas | Oil Change
MAC-10 | Strats
CZ75-Auto | Framework
FAMAS | Faulty Wiring
FAMAS | Faulty Wiring
Dual Berettas | Oil Change
MAC-10 | Strats
CZ75-Auto | Framework
XM1014 | Blue Tire
CZ75-Auto | Framework
XM1014 | Blue Tire12 further eligible inputs are available — open the reverse trade-up calculator to price a full contract against your own inventory.
What else this contract can land on
A contract from Stockholm 2021 Vertigo Souvenir Package / Antwerp 2022 Vertigo Souvenir Package / Rio 2022 Vertigo Souvenir Package / Paris 2023 Vertigo Souvenir Package / Copenhagen 2024 Vertigo Souvenir Package / Shanghai 2024 Vertigo Souvenir Package draws uniformly from every Industrial Grade SMG skin in the pool, so UMP-45 | Mechanism is one of 4 equally likely results. These are the other 3.
| Outcome | Odds | Cheapest price |
|---|---|---|
| SSG 08 | Carbon Fiber | 25% | $3.60 |
| Glock-18 | Red Tire | 25% | $1.74 |
| UMP-45 | Mechanismyour target | 25% | $1.53 |
| PP-Bizon | Breaker Box | 25% | $1.46 |
Input float for each exterior
CS2 normalises float across a trade-up: each input’s float becomes a 0–1 position inside its own range, those are averaged, and the average is applied to UMP-45 | Mechanism’s range of 0.00–0.49. To land a given exterior, your ten inputs must average the normalised float below.
| Target exterior | Output float | Required avg. input float |
|---|---|---|
| Factory New | 0.0350 | 0.0714 |
| Minimal Wear | 0.1100 | 0.2245 |
| Field-Tested | 0.2650 | 0.5408 |
| Well-Worn | 0.4150 | 0.8469 |
| Battle-Scarred | 0.4700 | 0.9592 |
“Not reachable” means UMP-45 | Mechanism’s own float range never enters that exterior band — no combination of inputs can produce it.
What UMP-45 | Mechanism is worth right now
Worth comparing against the contract cost above before you commit: buying the skin outright is frequently cheaper than rolling for it.
| Exterior | Price | vs. contract cost |
|---|---|---|
| Field-Tested | $1.53 | −$3.67 |
| Minimal Wear | $1.79 | −$3.41 |
| Well-Worn | $2.06 | −$3.14 |
| Factory New | $2.28 | −$2.92 |
| Battle-Scarred | $4.90 | −$0.30 |
Build this contract
Price a full ten-slot contract against live inputs, set your own float values, and see the outcome odds update as you go.